Axel Alfandari vs Tomáš Galko

DateSep 25, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueZénith Toulouse Métropole

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, September 25, 2026.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 3:00 AM
Your time

Axel AlfandariGrizzly |2-1-0Axel Alfandari vs Tomáš GalkoTomáš Galko1-1-0

Axel AlfandariGrizzly2-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

2-1-0Record1-1-0

25AgeTBD

5'10"Height5'8"

-Reach-

170 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Tomáš Galko1-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Axel Alfandari owns a 29-point Elo edge (average). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Axel Alfandari and Tomáš Galko across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Axel AlfandariTomáš Galko

Recent form

Axel AlfandariW L W · +32 Elo last 3

WLW

Tomáš GalkoW L · +2 Elo last 2

Elo edge

Axel Alfandari1531+29 last move

Tomáš Galko1502+26 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

62%Axel Alfandari38%Tomáš Galko

Model favoriteAxel Alfandari

Elo baseline54% for Axel Alfandari

Matchup adjustment+8 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Axel AlfandariStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Axel Alfandari leads the full model at 62%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 8 points.

Current Elo ratings1531 · 1502Axel Alfandari leads by 29 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1498Axel Alfandari faced the stronger recent schedule (3 vs 2 sampled fights).

Elo record depth3 · 2 fightsAxel Alfandari has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Axel AlfandarivsTomáš Galko

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Axel AlfandariKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Tomáš GalkoKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Axel AlfandariTomáš Galko

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.67

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.33

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

1Wins by knockout1

1Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision0

Axel Alfandari vs Tomáš Galko is a scheduled Lightweight fight on HEXAGONE MMA 47 : LAPILUS VS BIVOL. Axel Alfandari enters with a 2-1-0 record and Tomáš Galko enters with a 1-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.