Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint-Denis

Jul 11, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast46%Paddy Pimblett54%Benoit Saint-DenisFull forecast

DateJul 11, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueT-Mobile Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 11, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Paddy PimblettThe Baddy |24-4-0Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint-DenisBenoit Saint-DenisGod of War |17-4-0

Paddy PimblettThe Baddy24-4-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

24-4-0Record17-4-0

31Age30

5'10"Height5'11"

73"Reach73"

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Benoit Saint-DenisGod of War17-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Paddy Pimblett owns a 28-point Elo edge (great). Benoit Saint-Denis shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Paddy Pimblett and Benoit Saint-Denis across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Paddy PimblettBenoit Saint-Denis

Recent form

Paddy PimblettW L W W W · +49 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Benoit Saint-DenisL W W W W · +51 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Paddy Pimblett1794+15 last move

Benoit Saint-Denis1766-20 last move

Why they are ranked here

Paddy Pimblett#11 of 397 active Lightweight fighters · 1794 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jordan Leavitt (rated 1695 at the time): +18.
Costliest loss: Lost to Justin Gaethje (rated 1845 at the time): -10.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +49 Elo in total.
Next places: 7 points behind #10 Grant Dawson, 4 ahead of #12 Alexander Shabliy.

Benoit Saint-Denis#16 of 397 active Lightweight fighters · 1766 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ismael Bonfim (rated 1730 at the time): +22.
Costliest loss: Lost to Paddy Pimblett (rated 1780 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +51 Elo in total.
Next places: 6 points behind #15 Natan Schulte, 0 ahead of #17 Shinya Aoki.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v3-2026-06-10

46%Paddy Pimblett54%Benoit Saint-Denis

Model favoriteBenoit Saint-Denis

Elo baseline51% for Benoit Saint-Denis

Matchup adjustment+3 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Benoit Saint-DenisStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Benoit Saint-Denis leads the full model at 54%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 4 points.

Current Elo ratings1794 · 1766Paddy Pimblett leads by 28 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1689 · 1733Benoit Saint-Denis faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth28 · 21 fightsPaddy Pimblett has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesPaddy Pimblett 0 · 4 Benoit Saint-DenisStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Benoit Saint-Denis.

What's at stake

Paddy PimblettNow 1794 · #11 Lightweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1805

Loses by decision-13→ 1781

Benoit Saint-DenisNow 1766 · #16 Lightweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1783

Loses by decision-15→ 1751

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Paddy PimblettvsBenoit Saint-Denis

Takedown average

0.69vs4.19

Takedown accuracy

21%vs36%

Takedown defense

44%vs72%

Submission average

1.20vs1.75

Finishing profile

Paddy Pimblettsubmission leads 46% of wins

Benoit Saint-Denissubmission leads 65% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Paddy PimblettBenoit Saint-Denis

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.49Sig. strikes landed per min5.62

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

53Sig. strike accuracy59

UFC lightweight average : 46%

3.89Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.09

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

43Sig. strike defense42

UFC lightweight average : 53%

0.69Takedown average4.19

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

21Takedown accuracy36

UFC lightweight average : 28%

44Takedown defense72

UFC lightweight average : 59%

1.20Submission average1.75

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

7Wins by knockout6

11Wins by submission11

6Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout2

1Losses by submission1

3Losses by decision1

Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint-Denis is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC 329 : MCGREGOR VS HOLLOWAY 2. Paddy Pimblett enters with a 24-4-0 record and Benoit Saint-Denis enters with a 17-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.