UAE WARRIORS 73 ESTORIL : JAGUAR VS MCDONALD

Mafalda Carmona vs Kate Bacik

Oct 5, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Pick'em vs the modelWho wins this fight?Make your pick

DateOct 5, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCasino Estoril

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Monday, October 5, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Mon 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Mon 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Mon 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Mon 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Tue 4:00 AM
Your time

Mafalda CarmonaMonstrinho |8-3-0Mafalda Carmona vs Kate BacikKate BacikQueen of The South |8-3-0

Mafalda CarmonaMonstrinho8-3-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

8-3-0Record8-3-0

TBDAge33

5'6"Height5'7"

TBDReachTBD

135 lbsWeight130 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Kate BacikQueen of The South8-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Kate Bacik owns a 11-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Mafalda Carmona and Kate Bacik across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Mafalda CarmonaKate Bacik

Recent form

Mafalda CarmonaW L W W W · +31 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Kate BacikW W L W L · -4 Elo last 5

WWLWL

Elo edge

Mafalda Carmona1581+12 last move

Kate Bacik1592+18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Mafalda Carmona#38 of 62 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1581 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Tanja Huth (rated 1500 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Suvi Salmimies (rated 1487 at the time): -30.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +31 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #37 Josiane Nunes, 0 ahead of #39 Niamh Kinehan.

Kate Bacik#33 of 62 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1592 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Awa Sow (rated 1500 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Thalita Soares (rated 1480 at the time): -38.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -4 Elo in total.
Next places: 4 points behind #32 Melissa Mullins, 0 ahead of #34 Montserrat Rendon.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Mafalda CarmonaNow 1581 · #38 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1598

Loses by decision-15→ 1566

Kate BacikNow 1592 · #33 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1607

Loses by decision-17→ 1575

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Mafalda CarmonavsKate Bacik

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Mafalda CarmonaKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Kate Baciksubmission leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Mafalda CarmonaKate Bacik

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

4Wins by knockout0

1Wins by submission4

3Wins by decision4

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

2Losses by decision2

Mafalda Carmona vs Kate Bacik is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UAE WARRIORS 73 ESTORIL : JAGUAR VS MCDONALD. Mafalda Carmona enters with a 8-3-0 record and Kate Bacik enters with a 8-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.