Vazha Tsiptauri vs Astemir Nagoev

Sep 12, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast48%Vazha Tsiptauri52%Astemir NagoevFull forecast

DateSep 12, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueBasket Hall

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 12, 2026.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 AM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 1:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 2:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 PM
Your time

Vazha Tsiptauri15-8-1Vazha Tsiptauri vs Astemir NagoevAstemir Nagoev8-2-0

Vazha Tsiptauri15-8-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

15-8-1Record8-2-0

TBDAgeTBD

5'5"Height5'3"

-Reach-

127 lbsWeight127 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Astemir Nagoev8-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Astemir Nagoev owns a 12-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Vazha Tsiptauri and Astemir Nagoev across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Vazha TsiptauriAstemir Nagoev

Recent form

Vazha TsiptauriW L L W L · -13 Elo last 5

WLLWL

Astemir NagoevL L W W W · -9 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Elo edge

Vazha Tsiptauri1596+24 last move

Astemir Nagoev1608-29 last move

Why they are ranked here

Vazha Tsiptauri#115 of 209 active Flyweight fighters · 1596 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ramzan Suleymanov (rated 1656 at the time): +24.
Costliest loss: Lost to Daniel Oliveira (rated 1481 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -13 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #114 Bruno Silva, 1 ahead of #116 Cj Vergara.

Astemir Nagoev#199 of 361 active Bantamweight fighters · 1608 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Zakarya Kadyrov (rated 1500 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Aren Akopyan (rated 1590 at the time): -35.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -9 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #198 John Yannis, 2 ahead of #200 Olivier Poisson.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

48%Vazha Tsiptauri52%Astemir Nagoev

Model favoriteAstemir Nagoev

Elo baseline54% for Astemir Nagoev

Matchup adjustment-2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Astemir NagoevStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Astemir Nagoev leads the full model at 52%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1596 · 1608Astemir Nagoev leads by 12 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1575 · 1529Vazha Tsiptauri faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth23 · 10 fightsVazha Tsiptauri has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Vazha TsiptauriNow 1596 · #115 Flyweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1613

Loses by decision-15→ 1581

Astemir NagoevNow 1608 · #199 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1623

Loses by decision-17→ 1591

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Vazha TsiptaurivsAstemir Nagoev

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Vazha Tsiptauridecision leads 53% of wins

Astemir Nagoevdecision leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

Ramzan Suleymanov Vazha Tsiptauri: win · KO (Head Kick and Punches) · Oct 4, 2026Astemir Nagoev: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Feb 8, 2025

Tale of the tape

Vazha TsiptauriAstemir Nagoev

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

2Wins by knockout1

5Wins by submission3

8Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission0

7Losses by decision1

Vazha Tsiptauri vs Astemir Nagoev is a scheduled Fight card fight on ACA 207 : GONCHAROV VS ALMEIDA. Vazha Tsiptauri enters with a 15-8-1 record and Astemir Nagoev enters with a 8-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.