Combat Edge Model · Full card

Fury FC 125: Fight Force predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on Fury FC 125: Fight Force (October 2, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

Join the discussion Event overview

10Total bouts

9Frozen forecasts

2Close matchups

1Model / Elo splits

1Strong model leans

LockedFight card started

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 10 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

8 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

welterweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Nick Meck10-4-0

Dilano Taylor15-5-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Dilano Taylor won

20%Nick Meck80%Dilano Taylor

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 38% / 63%

FFC Featherweight Championshipv0.7-2026-08-28

Carlos Calderon11-5-0

Lorram Esteves10-4-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Carlos Calderon won

58%Carlos Calderon42%Lorram Esteves

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%

FFC Interim Lightweight Championshipv0.7-2026-08-28

Yehia Riles13-8-0

JaCobi Jones10-4-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · JaCobi Jones won

42%Yehia Riles58%JaCobi Jones

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49.1% / 50.9%

lightweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Christopher Lalone5-1-0

Dee Reddick3-1-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Christopher Lalone won

57%Christopher Lalone43%Dee Reddick

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 51% / 49%

lightweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Cameron Graves14-11-0

Kaecy Raddon6-3-0

Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Kaecy Raddon won

46%Cameron Graves55%Kaecy Raddon

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50.9% / 49.1%

MMA bout

Tyrell Hill5-5-0

Reginald Jones3-0-0

The frozen model forecast is not available for this bout yet.

Welterweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Aaron Phillips9-11-0

Quentin Perez4-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Quentin Perez won

32%Aaron Phillips68%Quentin Perez

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 36% / 64%

women's bantamweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Jenna Williams3-1-0

Brittany Bickhart3-2-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Jenna Williams won

42%Jenna Williams59%Brittany Bickhart

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 45% / 55%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

2 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

lightweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Deven Manibusan0-0-0

Josue Orozco0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel hit · Josue Orozco won

49.3%Deven Manibusan50.7%Josue Orozco

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

bantamweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Kenny Riley0-0-0

Kayden Cody0-0-0

Model lean50/50 baselineModel miss · Kenny Riley won

42%Kenny Riley58%Kayden Cody

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%