Ilia Topuria17-1-0
Justin Gaethje28-5-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Justin Gaethje won
28%Ilia Topuria72%Justin Gaethje
Combat Edge Model · Full card
UFC FREEDOM 250 : TOPURIA VS GAETHJE predictions
Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC FREEDOM 250 : TOPURIA VS GAETHJE (June 14, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
7Total bouts
7Frozen forecasts
0Close matchups
0Model / Elo splits
7Strong model leans
LockedFight card started
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Main card
Main card predictions
7 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Alex Pereira13-4-0
Ciryl Gane14-2-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Ciryl Gane won
16%Alex Pereira84%Ciryl Gane
Sean O'Malley20-3-0
Aiemann Zahabi14-3-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Sean O'Malley won
98%Sean O'Malley2%Aiemann Zahabi
Josh Hokit10-0-0
Derrick Lewis29-14-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Josh Hokit won
88%Josh Hokit12%Derrick Lewis
Mauricio Ruffy14-3-0
Michael Chandler23-11-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Mauricio Ruffy won
95%Mauricio Ruffy5%Michael Chandler
Bo Nickal9-1-0
Kyle Daukaus17-5-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Bo Nickal won
72%Bo Nickal28%Kyle Daukaus
Diego Lopes28-8-0
Steve Garcia19-6-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Diego Lopes won
94%Diego Lopes7%Steve Garcia