UFC FREEDOM 250 : TOPURIA VS GAETHJE predictions
Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC FREEDOM 250 : TOPURIA VS GAETHJE (June 14, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data, frozen before fight night, and graded on the accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
Start time & how to watch
Main card starts Sunday, June 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT +.
- US East (ET)
- Sun 9:00 PM
- US West (PT)
- Sun 6:00 PM
- United Kingdom
- Mon 2:00 AM
- Central Europe
- Mon 3:00 AM
- Australia (Sydney)
- Mon 11:00 AM
- Your time
Main card
Ilia Topuria 71% 29% Justin Gaethje Elo alone: 49% / 51% Alex Pereira 50% 50% Ciryl Gane Elo alone: 49% / 51% Sean O'Malley 73% 27% Aiemann Zahabi Elo alone: 58% / 42% Josh Hokit 55% 45% Derrick Lewis Elo alone: 45% / 55% Mauricio Ruffy 77% 23% Michael Chandler Elo alone: 47% / 53% Bo Nickal 50% 50% Kyle Daukaus Elo alone: 48% / 52% Diego Lopes 67% 33% Steve Garcia Elo alone: 55% / 45%