Alex Keogh vs Cristiano Oliveira

DateSep 26, 2026

DivisionCatchweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRDS Arena

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 2:00 AM
Your time

Alex Keogh1-0-0Alex Keogh vs Cristiano OliveiraCristiano Oliveira2-3-0

Alex Keogh1-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

1-0-0Record2-3-0

TBDAge35

5'8"Height5'8"

-Reach70"

144 lbsWeight150 lbs

CatchweightWeight ClassCatchweight

Cristiano Oliveira2-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alex Keogh owns a 55-point Elo edge (average). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Alex Keogh and Cristiano Oliveira across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Alex KeoghCristiano Oliveira

Recent form

Alex KeoghW · +29 Elo last 1

Cristiano OliveiraL W W L L · -26 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Elo edge

Alex Keogh1529+29 last move

Cristiano Oliveira1474-32 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

56%Alex Keogh44%Cristiano Oliveira

Model favoriteAlex Keogh

Elo baseline58% for Alex Keogh

Matchup adjustment-2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Alex KeoghStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Alex Keogh leads the full model at 56%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1529 · 1474Alex Keogh leads by 55 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1493Alex Keogh faced the stronger recent schedule (1 vs 5 sampled fights).

Elo record depth1 · 5 fightsCristiano Oliveira has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Alex KeoghvsCristiano Oliveira

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Alex Keoghsubmission leads 100% of wins

Cristiano OliveiraKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Alex KeoghCristiano Oliveira

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.96

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.85

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.63

0Wins by knockout1

1Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision1

Alex Keogh vs Cristiano Oliveira is a scheduled Catchweight fight on CAGE WARRIORS 210 : MCCORRY VS SOUSA. Alex Keogh enters with a 1-0-0 record and Cristiano Oliveira enters with a 2-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.