Keith Keogh vs Jhonatan Cordeiro

DateSep 26, 2026

DivisionCatchweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRDS Arena

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 2:00 AM
Your time

Keith Keogh4-0-0Keith Keogh vs Jhonatan CordeiroJhonatan CordeiroMarrentinho |8-3-0

Keith Keogh4-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

4-0-0Record8-3-0

TBDAge29

5'9"Height5'8"

-Reach-

145 lbsWeight145 lbs

CatchweightWeight ClassCatchweight

Jhonatan CordeiroMarrentinho8-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Keith Keogh owns a 13-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Keith Keogh and Jhonatan Cordeiro across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Keith KeoghJhonatan Cordeiro

Recent form

Keith KeoghW W W W · +107 Elo last 4

WWWW

Jhonatan CordeiroL W W W W · +59 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Keith Keogh1607+22 last move

Jhonatan Cordeiro1594-28 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

48%Keith Keogh52%Jhonatan Cordeiro

Model favoriteJhonatan Cordeiro

Elo baseline48% for Jhonatan Cordeiro

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jhonatan CordeiroStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Jhonatan Cordeiro is 52%, after Elo alone favored Keith Keogh at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1607 · 1594Keith Keogh leads by 13 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1518 · 1521Jhonatan Cordeiro faced the stronger recent schedule (4 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth4 · 10 fightsJhonatan Cordeiro has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Keith KeoghvsJhonatan Cordeiro

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Keith KeoghKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Jhonatan CordeiroKO/TKO leads 88% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Keith KeoghJhonatan Cordeiro

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.96

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.85

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.63

2Wins by knockout7

2Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Keith Keogh vs Jhonatan Cordeiro is a scheduled Catchweight fight on CAGE WARRIORS 210 : MCCORRY VS SOUSA. Keith Keogh enters with a 4-0-0 record and Jhonatan Cordeiro enters with a 8-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.