Conor McCarthy vs Dumitru Girlean

DateSep 26, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRDS Arena

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 2:00 AM
Your time

Conor McCarthyThe Hotstepper |6-1-0Conor McCarthy vs Dumitru GirleanDumitru GirleanDima |9-3-0

Conor McCarthyThe Hotstepper6-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

6-1-0Record9-3-0

TBDAge31

6'0"Height5'9"

-Reach-

158 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Dumitru GirleanDima9-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Dumitru Girlean owns a 3-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Conor McCarthy and Dumitru Girlean across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Conor McCarthyDumitru Girlean

Recent form

Conor McCarthyL W W W W · +52 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Dumitru GirleanW L W W L · -15 Elo last 5

WLWWL

Elo edge

Conor McCarthy1606-24 last move

Dumitru Girlean1609+14 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

61%Conor McCarthy39%Dumitru Girlean

Model favoriteConor McCarthy

Elo baseline50% for Conor McCarthy

Matchup adjustment+11 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Conor McCarthyStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Conor McCarthy is 61%, after Elo alone favored Dumitru Girlean at 50%.

Current Elo ratings1606 · 1609Dumitru Girlean leads by 3 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1524 · 1502Conor McCarthy faced the stronger recent schedule (7 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth7 · 12 fightsDumitru Girlean has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Conor McCarthyvsDumitru Girlean

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Conor McCarthyKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Dumitru Girleansubmission leads 56% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Conor McCarthyDumitru Girlean

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.67

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.33

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

3Wins by knockout4

0Wins by submission5

3Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission2

0Losses by decision0

Conor McCarthy vs Dumitru Girlean is a scheduled Lightweight fight on CAGE WARRIORS 210 : MCCORRY VS SOUSA. Conor McCarthy enters with a 6-1-0 record and Dumitru Girlean enters with a 9-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.