PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2

Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward

EventPFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2
DateOct 16, 2026
DivisionBantamweight
StatusScheduled
VenueWintrust Arena
BroadcastESPN 2
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 16, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET)
Fri 7:00 PM
US West (PT)
Fri 4:00 PM
United Kingdom
Sat 12:00 AM
Central Europe
Sat 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney)
Sat 10:00 AM

Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2. Alexander Shabliy enters with a 25-4-0 record and Landry Ward enters with a 11-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward quick answers

When is Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward?

Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward is listed for PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2 on Oct 16, 2026 at 7:00 PM EST.

What event is Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward on?

Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward is listed on PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2.

What are the records for Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward?

Alexander Shabliy enters with a 25-4-0 record and Landry Ward enters with a 11-3-0 record.

What division is Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward?

Alexander Shabliy vs Landry Ward is listed as a Bantamweight fight.

Alexander ShabliyPeresvet |25-4-0Alexander Shabliy vs Landry WardLandry WardThe Lone Star Kid |11-3-0
ruAlexander ShabliyPeresvet25-4-0Alexander Shabliyru

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
25-4-0Record11-3-0
33Age29
5'9"Height6'1"
70"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight
usLandry WardThe Lone Star Kid11-3-0usLandry Ward
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alexander Shabliy owns a 156-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Alexander Shabliy and Landry Ward across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Alexander ShabliyLandry Ward
16001650170017501800202420252026

Recent form

Alexander ShabliyW L W W W · +33 Elo last 5
WLWWW
Landry WardW W W L L · -2 Elo last 5
WWWLL

Elo edge

Alexander Shabliy1787+10 last move
Landry Ward1631+14 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
64%Alexander Shabliy36%Landry Ward
Model favoriteAlexander Shabliy
Elo baseline71% for Alexander Shabliy
Matchup adjustment-7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Alexander Shabliy leads the full model at 64%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 7 points.

Current Elo ratings1787 · 1631Alexander Shabliy leads by 156 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1656 · 1526Alexander Shabliy faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth29 · 14 fightsAlexander Shabliy has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Alexander ShabliyvsLandry Ward

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Alexander ShabliyKO/TKO leads 48% of wins
Landry Warddecision leads 55% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Alexander ShabliyLandry Ward
0Sig. strikes landed per min0
UFC lightweight average : 3.83
0Sig. strike accuracy0
UFC lightweight average : 46%
0Sig. strikes absorbed per min0
UFC lightweight average : 3.91
0Sig. strike defense0
UFC lightweight average : 54%
0Takedown average0
UFC lightweight average : 1.69
0Takedown accuracy0
UFC lightweight average : 30%
0Takedown defense0
UFC lightweight average : 58%
0Submission average0
UFC lightweight average : 0.52
12Wins by knockout5
7Wins by submission0
6Wins by decision6
0Losses by knockout0
1Losses by submission0
3Losses by decision3

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