Liz Carmouche vs Jena Bishop

Oct 16, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast48%Liz Carmouche52%Jena BishopFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 16, 2026

DivisionWomen'S Flyweight Championship

StatusScheduled

VenueWintrust Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 16, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Fri 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Liz CarmoucheGirl-Rilla |26-8-0Liz Carmouche vs Jena BishopJena Bishop11-3-0

Liz CarmoucheGirl-Rilla26-8-0

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

26-8-0Record11-3-0

42Age40

5'6"Height5'4"

66"Reach66"

125 lbsWeight125 lbs

Women'S Flyweight ChampionshipWeight ClassWomen'S Flyweight Championship

Jena Bishop11-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Liz Carmouche owns a 75-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Liz Carmouche and Jena Bishop across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Liz CarmoucheJena Bishop

Recent form

Liz CarmoucheW W W W L · +27 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Jena BishopW W L W W · +57 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Elo edge

Liz Carmouche1751+10 last move

Jena Bishop1676+19 last move

Why they are ranked here

Liz Carmouche#6 of 75 active Women Flyweight fighters · 1751 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Juliana Velasquez (rated 1586 at the time): +15.
Costliest loss: Lost to Taila Santos (rated 1737 at the time): -12.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +27 Elo in total.
Next places: 9 points behind #5 Natália Silva, 15 ahead of #7 Manon Fiorot.

Jena Bishop#20 of 75 active Women Flyweight fighters · 1676 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Chelsea Hackett (rated 1570 at the time): +23.
Costliest loss: Lost to Dakota Ditcheva (rated 1713 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +57 Elo in total.
Next places: 4 points behind #19 Tatiana Postarnakova, 2 ahead of #21 Sabrinna de Sousa.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

48%Liz Carmouche52%Jena Bishop

Model favoriteJena Bishop

Elo baseline39% for Jena Bishop

Matchup adjustment+13 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jena BishopStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Jena Bishop is 52%, after Elo alone favored Liz Carmouche at 61%.

Current Elo ratings1751 · 1676Liz Carmouche leads by 75 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1608 · 1615Jena Bishop faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth31 · 14 fightsLiz Carmouche has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Liz CarmoucheNow 1751 · #6 Women Flyweight

Wins by decision+9→ 1760

Loses by decision-15→ 1736

Jena BishopNow 1676 · #20 Women Flyweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1695

Loses by decision-13→ 1663

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Liz CarmouchevsJena Bishop

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Liz CarmoucheKO/TKO leads 42% of wins

Jena Bishopsubmission leads 64% of wins

Common opponents

Kana WatanabeLiz Carmouche: win · Submission (Armbar) · Jun 13, 2024Jena Bishop: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Apr 11, 2025

Taila SantosLiz Carmouche: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Aug 2, 2024Jena Bishop: loss · Decision (Split) · Jun 13, 2024

Ilara JoanneLiz Carmouche: win · TKO (Punches) · Apr 11, 2025Jena Bishop: win · Submission (Armbar) · Oct 7, 2023

Tale of the tape

Liz CarmoucheJena Bishop

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.78Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

54Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

2.51Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

62Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

2.57Takedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

34Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 26%

66Takedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0.31Submission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

11Wins by knockout0

7Wins by submission7

8Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout2

2Losses by submission0

6Losses by decision1

Liz Carmouche vs Jena Bishop is a scheduled Women'S Flyweight Championship fight on PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2. Liz Carmouche enters with a 26-8-0 record and Jena Bishop enters with a 11-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.