Combat Edge Model · Full card

PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs Bishop 2 predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs Bishop 2 (October 16, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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14Total bouts

14Frozen forecasts

5Close matchups

7Model / Elo splits

2Strong model leans

OpenPicks close at start

Card intelligence

Find the fights that matter

Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 14 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

5 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Women's Flyweight Championshipv0.8-2026-10-04

Liz Carmouche26-8-0

Jena Bishop11-3-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

48%Liz Carmouche52%Jena Bishop

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 61% / 39%

Featherweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Timur Khizriev18-0-0

Gabriel Braga17-3-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

54%Timur Khizriev46%Gabriel Braga

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 57% / 43%

Bantamweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Sarvarjon Khamidov17-1-0

Rafael do Nascimento13-3-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

68%Sarvarjon Khamidov32%Rafael do Nascimento

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 62% / 38%

MMA boutv0.8-2026-10-04

Oualy Tandia5-0-0

J.P. Saint Louis12-5-0

Strong model leanModel / Elo split

73%Oualy Tandia27%J.P. Saint Louis

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49.9% / 50.1%

Light Heavyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Emiliano Sordi27-14-1

Abraham Bably8-3-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

41%Emiliano Sordi59%Abraham Bably

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50.9% / 49.1%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

9 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Lightweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Gamid Khizriev7-0-0

Michael Boylan6-1-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

40%Gamid Khizriev60%Michael Boylan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%

Women's Flyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Shannon Clark8-1-0

Lucero Acosta6-2-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

65%Shannon Clark35%Lucero Acosta

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 58% / 42%

Lightweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Cássio Barão10-1-1

Kevin Pease8-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

40%Cássio Barão60%Kevin Pease

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 45% / 55%

Welterweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Eliezer Kubanza9-1-0

Trey Waters10-2-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

57%Eliezer Kubanza43%Trey Waters

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49.1% / 50.9%

Bantamweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Cobey Fehr4-0-0

Rosario Romero4-0-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agree

75%Cobey Fehr25%Rosario Romero

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 51% / 49%

Women's Flyweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Paulina Wisniewska7-1-0

Chelsea Hackett5-3-1

Close matchupModel / Elo split

47%Paulina Wisniewska53%Chelsea Hackett

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 61% / 40%

Featherweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Noah Hermosillo1-0-0

Caden Cox2-0-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

61%Noah Hermosillo39%Caden Cox

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 46% / 54%

Women's Strawweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Benita van Rooij7-2-0

Giulliany Perêa5-1-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

48%Benita van Rooij52%Giulliany Perêa

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 48% / 52%

Lightweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Levan Khabalaev6-0-0

Morquez Forest8-2-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

52%Levan Khabalaev48%Morquez Forest

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 51% / 49%