Allen Frye vs Alvin Hines

Jul 18, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast66%Allen Frye34%Alvin HinesFull forecast

DateJul 18, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenuePaycom Center

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 18, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Allen FryeAJ |6-1-0Allen Frye vs Alvin HinesAlvin HinesGoozie |7-2-0

Allen FryeAJ6-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

6-1-0Record7-2-0

28Age34

6'4"Height6'2"

80"Reach74"

265 lbsWeight260 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Alvin HinesGoozie7-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Allen Frye owns a 20-point Elo edge (solid). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Allen Frye and Alvin Hines across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Allen FryeAlvin Hines

Recent form

Allen FryeL W W W W · +68 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Alvin HinesL L W W W · +5 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Elo edge

Allen Frye1624-27 last move

Alvin Hines1604-30 last move

Why they are ranked here

Allen Frye#87 of 174 active Heavyweight fighters · 1624 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Justin Frazier (rated 1636 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Guilherme Pat (rated 1613 at the time): -27.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +68 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #86 Thomas Petersen, 1 ahead of #88 Greg Hardy.

Alvin Hines#109 of 174 active Heavyweight fighters · 1604 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Phillip Latu (rated 1549 at the time): +33.
Costliest loss: Lost to RJ Harris (rated 1624 at the time): -30.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +5 Elo in total.
Next places: 4 points behind #108 Jose Augusto, 0 ahead of #110 Karl Williams.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.5-2026-07-01

66%Allen Frye34%Alvin Hines

Model favoriteAllen Frye

Elo baseline49% for Allen Frye

Matchup adjustment+17 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Allen FryeStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Allen Frye is 66%, after Elo alone favored Alvin Hines at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1624 · 1604Allen Frye leads by 20 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1531 · 1535Alvin Hines faced the stronger recent schedule (7 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth7 · 9 fightsAlvin Hines has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesAllen Frye 2 · 2 Alvin HinesStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Alvin Hines.

What's at stake

Allen FryeNow 1624 · #87 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1647

Loses by decision-25→ 1599

Alvin HinesNow 1604 · #109 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+25→ 1629

Loses by decision-23→ 1581

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Allen FryevsAlvin Hines

Takedown average

0vs0.90

Sig. strikes landed per min

2.20vs5.58

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

4.27vs7.62

Sig. strike accuracy

38%vs33%

Finishing profile

Allen FryeKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Alvin HinesKO/TKO leads 43% of wins

Common opponents

RJ Harris Allen Frye: upcoming · Oct 10, 2026 Alvin Hines: loss · TKO (punches) · Jul 18, 2026

Tale of the tape

Allen FryeAlvin Hines

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.20Sig. strikes landed per min5.58

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

38Sig. strike accuracy33

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

4.27Sig. strikes absorbed per min7.62

UFC heavyweight average : 3.92

36Sig. strike defense39

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

0Takedown average0.90

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

Not availableTakedown accuracy10

UFC heavyweight average : 30%

0Takedown defense0

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

0Submission average0

UFC heavyweight average : 0.44

6Wins by knockout3

0Wins by submission3

0Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision1

Allen Frye vs Alvin Hines is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : DU PLESSIS VS USMAN. Allen Frye enters with a 6-1-0 record and Alvin Hines enters with a 7-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.