Axel Jean Alphonse vs Saber Cherifi

Oct 24, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast59%Axel Jean Alphonse41%Saber CherifiFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueZénith Paris La Villette

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 4:00 AM
Your time

Axel Jean Alphonse1-0-0Axel Jean Alphonse vs Saber CherifiSaber Cherifi0-0-0

Axel Jean Alphonse1-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

1-0-0Record0-0-0

TBDAgeTBD

TBDHeightTBD

TBDReachTBD

155 lbsWeight170 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Saber Cherifi0-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

The Elo matchup is close or still provisional. Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Axel Jean Alphonse and Saber Cherifi across their careers →

Recent form

Axel Jean AlphonseW · +24 Elo last 1

Saber CherifiNo counted pro MMA fights yet

No recent Elo history

Elo edge

Axel Jean Alphonse1524+24 last move

Saber CherifiTBDTBD last move

Why they are ranked here

Axel Jean Alphonse#381 of 433 active Lightweight fighters · 1524 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Michal Buršak (rated 1500 at the time): +24.
Next places: 1 point behind #380 Yusuke Sato, 0 ahead of #382 Josue Orozco.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1500 Elo over the last 1 fight. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.
Sample: Only 1 rated fight, so each result still moves this rating more than a veteran's.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

59%Axel Jean Alphonse41%Saber Cherifi

Model favoriteAxel Jean Alphonse

Elo baseline53% for Axel Jean Alphonse

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Axel Jean AlphonseStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Axel Jean Alphonse leads the full model at 59%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratingsNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Recent opponent qualityNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Elo record depthNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Axel Jean AlphonseNow 1524 · #381 Lightweight

Wins by decision+22→ 1546

Loses by decision-26→ 1498

Saber CherifiNow 1500

Wins by decision+26→ 1526

Loses by decision-22→ 1478

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Axel Jean AlphonsevsSaber Cherifi

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Axel Jean Alphonsedecision leads 100% of wins

Saber CherifiNo tracked pro wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Axel Jean AlphonseSaber Cherifi

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

0Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Axel Jean Alphonse vs Saber Cherifi is a scheduled Lightweight fight on HEXAGONE MMA 48 : SIMA VS GOI. Axel Jean Alphonse enters with a 1-0-0 record and Saber Cherifi enters with a 0-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.