ONE FIGHT NIGHT 49 BANGKOK : GABRIEL VS MAGOMEDOV

Lucas Gabriel vs Magomed Magomedov

Nov 6, 2026 · Amazon Prime

Combat Edge model forecast53%Lucas Gabriel47%Magomed MagomedovFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 6, 2026

DivisionLightweight MMA

StatusScheduled

VenueLumpinee Stadium

BroadcastAmazon Prime

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 6, 2026 — watch on Amazon Prime.

US East (ET): Fri 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 1:00 PM
Your time

Lucas GabrielSinister |11-1-0Lucas Gabriel vs Magomed MagomedovMagomed MagomedovMuhammad |15-0-0

Lucas GabrielSinister11-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

11-1-0Record15-0-0

26Age31

5'9"Height5'9"

74"Reach-

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

Lightweight MMAWeight ClassLightweight MMA

Magomed MagomedovMuhammad15-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Magomed Magomedov owns a 60-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Lucas Gabriel and Magomed Magomedov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Lucas GabrielMagomed Magomedov

Recent form

Lucas GabrielW W W W W · +87 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Magomed MagomedovW W W W W · +42 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Lucas Gabriel1675+14 last move

Magomed Magomedov1735+10 last move

Why they are ranked here

Lucas Gabriel#99 of 385 active Welterweight fighters · 1675 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat João Amâncio (rated 1500 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Taffarel Brasil (rated 1456 at the time): -37.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +87 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #98 Jefferson Nascimento, 1 ahead of #100 Seok Hyeon Ko.

Magomed Magomedov#37 of 385 active Welterweight fighters · 1735 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mahir Mamedov (rated 1529 at the time): +18.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +42 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #36 Kevin Holland, 1 ahead of #38 Saygid Izagakhmaev.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1495 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

53%Lucas Gabriel47%Magomed Magomedov

Model favoriteLucas Gabriel

Elo baseline41% for Lucas Gabriel

Matchup adjustment+12 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Lucas GabrielStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Lucas Gabriel is 53%, after Elo alone favored Magomed Magomedov at 59%.

Current Elo ratings1675 · 1735Magomed Magomedov leads by 60 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1517 · 1495Lucas Gabriel faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth11 · 15 fightsMagomed Magomedov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Lucas GabrielNow 1675 · #99 Welterweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1694

Loses by decision-13→ 1662

Magomed MagomedovNow 1735 · #37 Welterweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1748

Loses by decision-19→ 1716

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Lucas GabrielvsMagomed Magomedov

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Lucas Gabrieldecision leads 45% of wins

Magomed Magomedovdecision leads 40% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Lucas GabrielMagomed Magomedov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.65

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.43

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

2Wins by knockout5

4Wins by submission4

5Wins by decision6

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Lucas Gabriel vs Magomed Magomedov is a scheduled Lightweight MMA fight on ONE FIGHT NIGHT 49 BANGKOK : GABRIEL VS MAGOMEDOV. Lucas Gabriel enters with a 11-1-0 record and Magomed Magomedov enters with a 15-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.