ONE FIGHT NIGHT 49 BANGKOK : GABRIEL VS MAGOMEDOV

Qalandar Tabarov vs Ilmadi Israilov

Nov 6, 2026 · Amazon Prime

Combat Edge model forecast45%Qalandar Tabarov55%Ilmadi IsrailovFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 6, 2026

DivisionBantamweight MMA

StatusScheduled

VenueLumpinee Stadium

BroadcastAmazon Prime

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 6, 2026 — watch on Amazon Prime.

US East (ET): Fri 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 1:00 PM
Your time

Qalandar Tabarov5-0-0Qalandar Tabarov vs Ilmadi IsrailovIlmadi Israilov9-0-0

Qalandar Tabarov5-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

5-0-0Record9-0-0

27Age23

5'10"Height5'9"

TBDReachTBD

150 lbsWeight135 lbs

Bantamweight MMAWeight ClassBantamweight MMA

Ilmadi Israilov9-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ilmadi Israilov owns a 96-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Qalandar Tabarov and Ilmadi Israilov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Qalandar TabarovIlmadi Israilov

Recent form

Qalandar TabarovL W W W W · +63 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Ilmadi IsrailovW W W W W · +86 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Qalandar Tabarov1587-32 last move

Ilmadi Israilov1683+13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Qalandar Tabarov#289 of 458 active Lightweight fighters · 1587 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mavlet Amirov (rated 1527 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Kang Er (rated 1500 at the time): -32.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +63 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #288 Vladimír Lengál, 0 ahead of #290 Romário Jaguar.

Ilmadi IsrailovNot on the active ladder · 1683 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Oroz-Ali Nayipzhanov (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +86 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1660, not 1683: 23 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.
Activity: Not on the active ladder: no rated fight in the last 24 months.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

45%Qalandar Tabarov55%Ilmadi Israilov

Model favoriteIlmadi Israilov

Elo baseline63% for Ilmadi Israilov

Matchup adjustment-8 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Ilmadi IsrailovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Ilmadi Israilov leads the full model at 55%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 8 points.

Current Elo ratings1587 · 1683Ilmadi Israilov leads by 96 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1499Qalandar Tabarov faced the stronger recent schedule (6 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth6 · 9 fightsIlmadi Israilov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Qalandar TabarovNow 1587 · #289 Lightweight

Wins by decision+30→ 1617

Loses by decision-18→ 1569

Ilmadi IsrailovNow 1683

Wins by decision+18→ 1701

Loses by decision-30→ 1653

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Qalandar TabarovvsIlmadi Israilov

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Qalandar TabarovKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Ilmadi Israilovsubmission leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Qalandar TabarovIlmadi Israilov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.67

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 58%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.55

2Wins by knockout0

2Wins by submission6

1Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Qalandar Tabarov vs Ilmadi Israilov is a scheduled Bantamweight MMA fight on ONE FIGHT NIGHT 49 BANGKOK : GABRIEL VS MAGOMEDOV. Qalandar Tabarov enters with a 5-0-0 record and Ilmadi Israilov enters with a 9-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.