Liam Macfadyen vs Nicolas Mandiola

Nov 6, 2026 · UFC FIGHT PASS

Combat Edge model forecast55%Liam Macfadyen45%Nicolas MandiolaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 6, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCasino Du Lac Leamy

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 6, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Fri 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Fri 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Liam MacfadyenThe Celtic Samurai |6-0-0Liam Macfadyen vs Nicolas MandiolaNicolas MandiolaBam Bam |5-1-0

Liam MacfadyenThe Celtic Samurai6-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

6-0-0Record5-1-0

TBDAgeTBD

5'7"Height5'7"

-ReachTBD

135 lbsWeight134 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Nicolas MandiolaBam Bam5-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Liam Macfadyen owns a 42-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Liam Macfadyen and Nicolas Mandiola across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Liam MacfadyenNicolas Mandiola

Recent form

Liam MacfadyenW W W W W · +103 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Nicolas MandiolaW W L W W · +59 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Elo edge

Liam Macfadyen1631+19 last move

Nicolas Mandiola1589+22 last move

Why they are ranked here

Liam Macfadyen#163 of 373 active Bantamweight fighters · 1631 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Patrick Arseneau (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +103 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #162 Raulian Paiva, 0 ahead of #164 Mando Gutierrez.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1505 Elo over the last 6 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Nicolas Mandiola#230 of 373 active Bantamweight fighters · 1589 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Sebastian Collao (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Eduardo Torres (rated 1467 at the time): -38.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +59 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #229 Goga Shamatava, 1 ahead of #231 Šimon Bruknar.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

55%Liam Macfadyen45%Nicolas Mandiola

Model favoriteLiam Macfadyen

Elo baseline56% for Liam Macfadyen

Matchup adjustment-1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Liam MacfadyenStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Liam Macfadyen leads the full model at 55%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1631 · 1589Liam Macfadyen leads by 42 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1505 · 1492Liam Macfadyen faced the stronger recent schedule (6 vs 6 sampled fights).

Elo record depth6 · 6 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Liam MacfadyenNow 1631 · #163 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+21→ 1652

Loses by decision-27→ 1604

Nicolas MandiolaNow 1589 · #230 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+27→ 1616

Loses by decision-21→ 1568

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Liam MacfadyenvsNicolas Mandiola

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Liam Macfadyendecision leads 67% of wins

Nicolas Mandiolasubmission leads 60% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Liam MacfadyenNicolas Mandiola

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

2Wins by knockout2

0Wins by submission3

4Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Liam Macfadyen vs Nicolas Mandiola is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on SAMOURAI MMA 22 : BONIN VS AVELLAN. Liam Macfadyen enters with a 6-0-0 record and Nicolas Mandiola enters with a 5-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.