Leo Bonin vs Camillo Avellan

Nov 6, 2026 · UFC FIGHT PASS

Combat Edge model forecast50%Leo Bonin50%Camillo AvellanFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 6, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueCasino Du Lac Leamy

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 6, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Fri 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Fri 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Leo BoninThe Lion |5-2-0Leo Bonin vs Camillo AvellanCamillo Avellan5-0-0

Leo BoninThe Lion5-2-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

5-2-0Record5-0-0

28AgeTBD

5'10"Height6'1"

69.7"Reach-

146 lbsWeight145 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Camillo Avellan5-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Camillo Avellan owns a 34-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Leo Bonin and Camillo Avellan across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Leo BoninCamillo Avellan

Recent form

Leo BoninW W W L W · +85 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Camillo AvellanW W W W W · +123 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Leo Bonin1589+29 last move

Camillo Avellan1623+30 last move

Why they are ranked here

Leo Bonin#253 of 372 active Featherweight fighters · 1589 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Harda Karim (rated 1559 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jake Geauvreau (rated 1584 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +85 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #252 Karol Ryšavý, 0 ahead of #254 Lewis Byrne.

Camillo Avellan#28 of 73 active Catchweight fighters · 1623 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Martin Leon (rated 1609 at the time): +30.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +123 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #27 Wilson Lopshire, 0 ahead of #29 Macksom Lee.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1517 Elo over the last 5 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

50%Leo Bonin50%Camillo Avellan

Model favoriteLeo Bonin

Elo baseline45% for Leo Bonin

Matchup adjustment+5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Leo BoninStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Leo Bonin is 50%, after Elo alone favored Camillo Avellan at 55%.

Current Elo ratings1589 · 1623Camillo Avellan leads by 34 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1522 · 1517Leo Bonin faced the stronger recent schedule (7 vs 5 sampled fights).

Elo record depth7 · 5 fightsLeo Bonin has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Leo BoninNow 1589 · #253 Featherweight

Wins by decision+26→ 1615

Loses by decision-22→ 1567

Camillo AvellanNow 1623 · #28 Catchweight

Wins by decision+22→ 1645

Loses by decision-26→ 1597

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Leo BoninvsCamillo Avellan

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Leo Boninsubmission leads 60% of wins

Camillo AvellanKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Leo BoninCamillo Avellan

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

1Wins by knockout2

3Wins by submission1

1Wins by decision2

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Leo Bonin vs Camillo Avellan is a scheduled Fight card fight on SAMOURAI MMA 22 : BONIN VS AVELLAN. Leo Bonin enters with a 5-2-0 record and Camillo Avellan enters with a 5-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.