Jany St-Cyr vs Katherinne Machuca

Nov 6, 2026 · UFC FIGHT PASS

Combat Edge model forecast66%Jany St-Cyr34%Katherinne MachucaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 6, 2026

DivisionStrawweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCasino Du Lac Leamy

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 6, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Fri 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Fri 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Jany St-Cyr2-0-0Jany St-Cyr vs Katherinne MachucaKatherinne MachucaLa Maldita |3-4-0

Jany St-Cyr2-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

2-0-0Record3-4-0

TBDAge39

5'3"Height5'2"

TBDReachTBD

115 lbsWeight115 lbs

StrawweightWeight ClassStrawweight

Katherinne MachucaLa Maldita3-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jany St-Cyr owns a 71-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Jany St-Cyr and Katherinne Machuca across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jany St-CyrKatherinne Machuca

Recent form

Jany St-CyrW W · +51 Elo last 2

Katherinne MachucaL L W W L · -27 Elo last 5

LLWWL

Elo edge

Jany St-Cyr1551+27 last move

Katherinne Machuca1480-31 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jany St-Cyr#7 of 8 active Strawweight fighters · 1551 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Valentina Meyer (rated 1500 at the time): +27.
Last 2 fights: 2 wins, 0 losses, +51 Elo in total.
Next places: 10 points behind #6 Júlia Barros, 69 ahead of #8 Amanda Rafaela.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1500 Elo over the last 2 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Katherinne Machuca#102 of 108 active Women Strawweight fighters · 1480 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Nicole Artaza (rated 1500 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Anyela Perez (rated 1481 at the time): -31.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -27 Elo in total.
Next places: 11 points behind #101 Fernanda Atômica, 2 ahead of #103 Ye Ji Lee.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

66%Jany St-Cyr34%Katherinne Machuca

Model favoriteJany St-Cyr

Elo baseline60% for Jany St-Cyr

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jany St-CyrStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jany St-Cyr leads the full model at 66%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1551 · 1480Jany St-Cyr leads by 71 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1487Jany St-Cyr faced the stronger recent schedule (2 vs 7 sampled fights).

Elo record depth2 · 7 fightsKatherinne Machuca has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Jany St-CyrNow 1551 · #7 Strawweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1570

Loses by decision-29→ 1522

Katherinne MachucaNow 1480 · #102 Women Strawweight

Wins by decision+29→ 1509

Loses by decision-19→ 1461

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jany St-CyrvsKatherinne Machuca

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Jany St-Cyrsubmission leads 50% of wins

Katherinne Machucasubmission leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Jany St-CyrKatherinne Machuca

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC strawweight average : 4.15

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC strawweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC strawweight average : 4.11

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC strawweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC strawweight average : 1.37

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC strawweight average : 32%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC strawweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC strawweight average : 0.43

0Wins by knockout0

1Wins by submission3

1Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision3

Jany St-Cyr vs Katherinne Machuca is a scheduled Strawweight fight on SAMOURAI MMA 22 : BONIN VS AVELLAN. Jany St-Cyr enters with a 2-0-0 record and Katherinne Machuca enters with a 3-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.