Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza

Nov 7, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast41%Jonny Parsons59%Jose SouzaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Jonny ParsonsThe Sluggernaut |9-3-0Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique SouzaJose SouzaCanela |9-1-0

Jonny ParsonsThe Sluggernaut9-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

9-3-0Record9-1-0

35Age24

5'10"Height6'3"

69"Reach79"

171 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Jose SouzaCanela9-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jonny Parsons owns a 37-point Elo edge (good). Jonny Parsons shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Jonny Parsons and Jose Souza across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jonny ParsonsJose Souza

Recent form

Jonny ParsonsW W W W W · +124 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Jose SouzaW W W W L · +62 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Elo edge

Jonny Parsons1669+30 last move

Jose Souza1632+26 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jonny ParsonsNot on the active ladder · 1669 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Tyler Hill (rated 1591 at the time): +33.
Costliest loss: Lost to Chris Cisneros (rated 1418 at the time): -33.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +124 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1607, not 1669: 62 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Jose Souza#158 of 333 active Welterweight fighters · 1632 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Lucas Prestes (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Carlos Soares (rated 1513 at the time): -28.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +62 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #157 Subaru Mori, 0 ahead of #159 Khamzat Abaev.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

41%Jonny Parsons59%Jose Souza

Model favoriteJose Souza

Elo baseline45% for Jose Souza

Matchup adjustment+14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jose SouzaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Jose Souza is 59%, after Elo alone favored Jonny Parsons at 55%.

Current Elo ratings1669 · 1632Jonny Parsons leads by 37 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1528 · 1528Equal pre-fight opponent Elo across 9 and 10 sampled fights.

Elo record depth9 · 10 fightsJose Souza has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesJonny Parsons 3 · 1 Jose SouzaStrongest available gap: Takedown defense toward Jonny Parsons.

What's at stake

Jonny ParsonsNow 1669

Wins by decision+21→ 1690

Loses by decision-27→ 1642

Jose SouzaNow 1632 · #158 Welterweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1650

Loses by decision-14→ 1618

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jonny ParsonsvsJose Souza

Takedown defense

67%vs0%

Sig. strike defense

60%vs49%

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.65vs4.24

Sig. strike accuracy

45%vs46%

Finishing profile

Jonny ParsonsKO/TKO leads 78% of wins

Jose SouzaKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

Yusaku KinoshitaJonny Parsons: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Aug 10, 2024Jose Souza: loss · Left Hook & Punches · Aug 30, 2022

Tale of the tape

Jonny ParsonsJose Souza

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.65Sig. strikes landed per min4.24

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

45Sig. strike accuracy46

UFC welterweight average : 46%

4.89Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.86

UFC welterweight average : 3.86

60Sig. strike defense49

UFC welterweight average : 53%

0Takedown average0

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

0Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

67Takedown defense0

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0Submission average0

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

7Wins by knockout6

0Wins by submission0

2Wins by decision3

2Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique Souza is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BONFIM VS BRADY. Jonny Parsons enters with a 9-3-0 record and Jose Souza enters with a 9-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.