Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov

Jul 11, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast48%Robert Whittaker52%Nikita KrylovFull forecast

DateJul 11, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueT-Mobile Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 11, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Robert WhittakerThe Reaper |27-9-0Robert Whittaker vs Nikita KrylovNikita KrylovThe Miner |31-12-0

Robert WhittakerThe Reaper27-9-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

27-9-0Record31-12-0

35Age34

6'0"Height6'3"

73"Reach77"

186 lbsWeight215 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Nikita KrylovThe Miner31-12-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Robert Whittaker owns a 63-point Elo edge (great). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Robert Whittaker and Nikita Krylov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Robert WhittakerNikita Krylov

Recent form

Robert WhittakerW L L W W · +18 Elo last 5

WLLWW

Nikita KrylovL W L L W · -8 Elo last 5

LWLLW

Elo edge

Robert Whittaker1753+13 last move

Nikita Krylov1690-13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Robert Whittaker#10 of 177 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1753 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Marvin Vettori (rated 1732 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Khamzat Chimaev (rated 1807 at the time): -13.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +18 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #9 Paulo Costa, 5 ahead of #11 Dominick Reyes.

Nikita Krylov#39 of 177 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1690 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Modestas Bukauskas (rated 1719 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Paul Craig (rated 1721 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -8 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #38 Lucas Fernando, 3 ahead of #40 Simeon Powell.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.5-2026-07-01

48%Robert Whittaker52%Nikita Krylov

Model favoriteNikita Krylov

Elo baseline45% for Nikita Krylov

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Nikita KrylovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Nikita Krylov is 52%, after Elo alone favored Robert Whittaker at 55%.

Current Elo ratings1753 · 1690Robert Whittaker leads by 63 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1755 · 1710Robert Whittaker faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth31 · 32 fightsNikita Krylov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesRobert Whittaker 2 · 2 Nikita KrylovStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Nikita Krylov.

What's at stake

Robert WhittakerNow 1753 · #10 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+10→ 1763

Loses by decision-14→ 1739

Nikita KrylovNow 1690 · #39 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1704

Loses by decision-10→ 1680

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Robert WhittakervsNikita Krylov

Submission average

0vs1.14

Takedown accuracy

10%vs2%

Takedown average

0.73vs2.19

Takedown defense

82%vs53%

Finishing profile

Robert WhittakerKO/TKO leads 41% of wins

Nikita Krylovsubmission leads 52% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Robert WhittakerNikita Krylov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.39Sig. strikes landed per min4.38

UFC middleweight average : 3.93

43Sig. strike accuracy54

UFC middleweight average : 48%

3.36Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.75

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

60Sig. strike defense48

UFC middleweight average : 52%

0.73Takedown average2.19

UFC middleweight average : 1.62

10Takedown accuracy2

UFC middleweight average : 30%

82Takedown defense53

UFC middleweight average : 59%

0Submission average1.14

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

11Wins by knockout13

5Wins by submission16

11Wins by decision2

3Losses by knockout4

2Losses by submission6

4Losses by decision2

Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC 329 : MCGREGOR VS HOLLOWAY 2. Robert Whittaker enters with a 27-9-0 record and Nikita Krylov enters with a 31-12-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.