Delffy Humer vs João Lucas Rocha

Oct 24, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast48%Delffy Humer52%João Lucas RochaFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueBuesa Arena

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Delffy HumerEl Guerrero DD |3-0-0Delffy Humer vs João Lucas RochaJoão Lucas Rocha4-2-0

Delffy HumerEl Guerrero DD3-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

3-0-0Record4-2-0

25AgeTBD

5'8"HeightTBD

TBDReachTBD

125 lbsWeightTBD

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

João Lucas Rocha4-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Delffy Humer owns a 15-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Delffy Humer and João Lucas Rocha across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Delffy HumerJoão Lucas Rocha

Recent form

Delffy HumerW W W · +82 Elo last 3

WWW

João Lucas RochaW W L L W · +37 Elo last 5

WWLLW

Elo edge

Delffy Humer1582+22 last move

João Lucas Rocha1567+25 last move

Why they are ranked here

Delffy Humer#135 of 213 active Flyweight fighters · 1582 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Yaman Mjahed (rated 1558 at the time): +31.
Last 3 fights: 3 wins, 0 losses, +82 Elo in total.
Next places: 5 points behind #134 Roybert Echeverria, 0 ahead of #136 Maysara Mohamed.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1511 Elo over the last 3 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

João Lucas Rocha#1 of 6 active Unassigned fighters · 1567 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Anderson Silva (rated 1708 at the time): +42.
Costliest loss: Lost to Elton Armindo (rated 1586 at the time): -28.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +37 Elo in total.
Next places: 21 ahead of #2 Vincenzo Bussolotti.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

48%Delffy Humer52%João Lucas Rocha

Model favoriteJoão Lucas Rocha

Elo baseline48% for João Lucas Rocha

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back João Lucas RochaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: João Lucas Rocha is 52%, after Elo alone favored Delffy Humer at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1582 · 1567Delffy Humer leads by 15 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1511 · 1544João Lucas Rocha faced the stronger recent schedule (3 vs 6 sampled fights).

Elo record depth3 · 6 fightsJoão Lucas Rocha has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Delffy HumerNow 1582 · #135 Flyweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1605

Loses by decision-25→ 1557

João Lucas RochaNow 1567 · #1 Unassigned

Wins by decision+25→ 1592

Loses by decision-23→ 1544

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Delffy HumervsJoão Lucas Rocha

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Delffy HumerKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

João Lucas RochaWin method split is limited

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Delffy HumerJoão Lucas Rocha

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

2Wins by knockout0

1Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Delffy Humer vs João Lucas Rocha is a scheduled Flyweight fight on WOW 33 : GARCIA VS SANCHEZ. Delffy Humer enters with a 3-0-0 record and João Lucas Rocha enters with a 4-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.