Vincent Yerly vs Jan Šťastný

Sep 25, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast52%Vincent Yerly48%Jan ŠťastnýFull forecast

DateSep 25, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueAdidas Arena

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, September 25, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 3:00 AM
Your time

Vincent YerlyThe Revenant |2-0-0Vincent Yerly vs Jan ŠťastnýJan Šťastný1-1-0

Vincent YerlyThe Revenant2-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

2-0-0Record1-1-0

TBDAge33

TBDHeight6'0"

-Reach-

185 lbsWeight170 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Jan Šťastný1-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Vincent Yerly owns a 71-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Vincent Yerly and Jan Šťastný across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Vincent YerlyJan Šťastný

Recent form

Vincent YerlyW W · +59 Elo last 2

Jan ŠťastnýL W · -13 Elo last 2

Elo edge

Vincent Yerly1559+30 last move

Jan Šťastný1488-33 last move

Why they are ranked here

Vincent Yerly#211 of 280 active Middleweight fighters · 1559 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Joelson Ferreira (rated 1543 at the time): +30.
Last 2 fights: 2 wins, 0 losses, +59 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #210 Ricky Miller, 1 ahead of #212 Chris Droege.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1522 Elo over the last 2 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Jan Šťastný#334 of 357 active Welterweight fighters · 1488 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Filip Roubiček (rated 1500 at the time): +20.
Costliest loss: Lost to Martin Resch (rated 1471 at the time): -33.
Last 2 fights: 1 win, 1 loss, -13 Elo in total.
Next places: 8 points behind #333 Ricardo Romero, 0 ahead of #335 Lévy Carriel.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

52%Vincent Yerly48%Jan Šťastný

Model favoriteVincent Yerly

Elo baseline56% for Vincent Yerly

Matchup adjustment-4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Vincent YerlyStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Vincent Yerly leads the full model at 52%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 4 points.

Current Elo ratings1559 · 1488Vincent Yerly leads by 71 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1522 · 1486Vincent Yerly faced the stronger recent schedule (2 vs 2 sampled fights).

Elo record depth2 · 2 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Vincent YerlyNow 1559 · #211 Middleweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1578

Loses by decision-29→ 1530

Jan ŠťastnýNow 1488 · #334 Welterweight

Wins by decision+29→ 1517

Loses by decision-19→ 1469

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Vincent YerlyvsJan Šťastný

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Vincent YerlyKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Jan Šťastnýdecision leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Vincent YerlyJan Šťastný

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.93

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 48%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 52%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 1.62

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

1Wins by knockout0

1Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Vincent Yerly vs Jan Šťastný is a scheduled Fight card fight on ARES FC 43 : O'CONNOR VS DIATTA. Vincent Yerly enters with a 2-0-0 record and Jan Šťastný enters with a 1-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.