Smilla Sundell vs Aline Pereira

Oct 13, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast40%Smilla Sundell60%Aline PereiraFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 13, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Tuesday, October 13, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Tue 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Tue 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Wed 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Wed 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Wed 10:00 AM
Your time

Smilla SundellThe Hurricane |2-0-0Smilla Sundell vs Aline PereiraAline Pereira3-2-0

Smilla SundellThe Hurricane2-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

2-0-0Record3-2-0

21Age35

5'10"Height5'7"

-Reach70"

135 lbsWeight124 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Aline Pereira3-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Smilla Sundell owns a 33-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Smilla Sundell and Aline Pereira across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Smilla SundellAline Pereira

Recent form

Smilla SundellW W · +55 Elo last 2

Aline PereiraW W L W L · +22 Elo last 5

WWLWL

Elo edge

Smilla Sundell1555+26 last move

Aline Pereira1522+22 last move

Why they are ranked here

Smilla Sundell#256 of 316 active Bantamweight fighters · 1555 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Miranda Barber (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Last 2 fights: 2 wins, 0 losses, +55 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #255 Elias Erber, 3 ahead of #257 Alan Gomes de Castro.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1500 Elo over the last 2 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Aline Pereira#71 of 75 active Women Flyweight fighters · 1522 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Chelsea Conner (rated 1500 at the time): +26.
Costliest loss: Lost to Helen Peralta (rated 1477 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +22 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #70 Ilara Joanne, 24 ahead of #72 Jade Masson-Wong.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

40%Smilla Sundell60%Aline Pereira

Model favoriteAline Pereira

Elo baseline45% for Aline Pereira

Matchup adjustment+15 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Aline PereiraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Aline Pereira is 60%, after Elo alone favored Smilla Sundell at 55%.

Current Elo ratings1555 · 1522Smilla Sundell leads by 33 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1496Smilla Sundell faced the stronger recent schedule (2 vs 5 sampled fights).

Elo record depth2 · 5 fightsAline Pereira has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Smilla SundellNow 1555 · #256 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+22→ 1577

Loses by decision-26→ 1529

Aline PereiraNow 1522 · #71 Women Flyweight

Wins by decision+26→ 1548

Loses by decision-22→ 1500

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Smilla SundellvsAline Pereira

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Smilla SundellKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Aline Pereiradecision leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Smilla SundellAline Pereira

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

2Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision2

Smilla Sundell vs Aline Pereira is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on CONTENDER SERIES 2026 : WEEK 10. Smilla Sundell enters with a 2-0-0 record and Aline Pereira enters with a 3-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.