Jason Asher vs Greg Foster

Oct 13, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast60%Jason Asher40%Greg FosterFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 13, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Tuesday, October 13, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Tue 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Tue 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Wed 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Wed 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Wed 10:00 AM
Your time

Jason AsherAll Smoke |5-0-0Jason Asher vs Greg FosterGreg FosterPunch First |8-1-0

Jason AsherAll Smoke5-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

5-0-0Record8-1-0

26Age34

6'1"Height5'11"

-Reach-

146 lbsWeight156 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Greg FosterPunch First8-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Greg Foster owns a 1-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Jason Asher and Greg Foster across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jason AsherGreg Foster

Recent form

Jason AsherW W W W W · +125 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Greg FosterW W W L W · +44 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Elo edge

Jason Asher1626+24 last move

Greg Foster1627+13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jason Asher#191 of 370 active Featherweight fighters · 1626 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Travis Budenich (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +125 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #190 Ananias Mulumba, 1 ahead of #192 Otari Tanzilovi.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1509 Elo over the last 5 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Greg Foster#203 of 387 active Lightweight fighters · 1627 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat JJ Nelson (rated 1471 at the time): +25.
Costliest loss: Lost to Richard Jennings (rated 1500 at the time): -31.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +44 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #202 Marcos Silva, 1 ahead of #204 Anastasios Chatzigeorgiadis.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

60%Jason Asher40%Greg Foster

Model favoriteJason Asher

Elo baseline50% for Jason Asher

Matchup adjustment+10 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jason AsherStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Jason Asher is 60%, after Elo alone favored Greg Foster at 50%.

Current Elo ratings1626 · 1627Greg Foster leads by 1 rating point.

Recent opponent quality1509 · 1474Jason Asher faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth5 · 9 fightsGreg Foster has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Jason AsherNow 1626 · #191 Featherweight

Wins by decision+24→ 1650

Loses by decision-24→ 1602

Greg FosterNow 1627 · #203 Lightweight

Wins by decision+24→ 1651

Loses by decision-24→ 1603

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jason AshervsGreg Foster

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Jason AsherKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Greg Fostersubmission leads 38% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Jason AsherGreg Foster

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

5Wins by knockout2

0Wins by submission3

0Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Jason Asher vs Greg Foster is a scheduled Lightweight fight on CONTENDER SERIES 2026 : WEEK 10. Jason Asher enters with a 5-0-0 record and Greg Foster enters with a 8-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.