Combat Edge Model · Full card

Cage Warriors 211 Rome: Bellandi vs Valente predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on Cage Warriors 211 Rome: Bellandi vs Valente (October 17, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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15Total bouts

15Frozen forecasts

9Close matchups

7Model / Elo splits

0Strong model leans

OpenPicks close at start

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

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15 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

middleweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Dario Bellandi9-2-0

Renato Valente12-8-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

47%Dario Bellandi53%Renato Valente

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 55% / 45%

featherweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Giuseppe Ruggeri10-1-0

Alexander Lööf9-4-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

46%Giuseppe Ruggeri54%Alexander Lööf

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 60% / 40%

featherweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo9-1-0

Alexis Tsarmantidis7-2-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

47%Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo53%Alexis Tsarmantidis

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 54% / 46%

bantamweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Federico Rotoni0-0-0

Andrei Fabbi1-2-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

37%Federico Rotoni63%Andrei Fabbi

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 53% / 47%

welterweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Michael Pagani8-3-0

Christopher Bajo6-4-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

65%Michael Pagani35%Christopher Bajo

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 60% / 41%

welterweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Danilo Belluardo13-7-0

Andrea Kabali4-1-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

45%Danilo Belluardo55%Andrea Kabali

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49.6% / 50.4%

lightweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Simone Patrizi7-6-0

Dylan Logan5-5-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

49.4%Simone Patrizi50.6%Dylan Logan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50.7% / 49.3%

bantamweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Pietro Mochetti5-3-0

Tommy Brunning2-3-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

57%Pietro Mochetti43%Tommy Brunning

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 59% / 41%

lightweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Niko Ceraglia3-1-0

Valentino Greco1-2-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

62%Niko Ceraglia38%Valentino Greco

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 61% / 39%

bantamweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Jonathan Rivera3-0-0

Amer Salameh1-1-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

51%Jonathan Rivera49%Amer Salameh

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 61% / 39%

featherweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Alessandro Ortolani2-2-0

Simone Ali0-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

57%Alessandro Ortolani43%Simone Ali

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 54% / 46%

bantamweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Ruben Vinci1-0-0

Jurgen Koci1-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

67%Ruben Vinci33%Jurgen Koci

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 53% / 47%

flyweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Kevin Caperna2-3-0

Diego Giangirolami1-2-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

48%Kevin Caperna52%Diego Giangirolami

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 51% / 49%

flyweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Valentina Scatizzi3-4-0

Eimear Darcy3-3-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

52%Valentina Scatizzi48%Eimear Darcy

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49.9% / 50.1%

flyweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Gabriele Lionetti2-1-0

Elez Guri1-1-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

50%Gabriele Lionetti50%Elez Guri

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%