Alou Camara vs Garcia Kinkela

Nov 20, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast54%Alou Camara46%Garcia KinkelaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 20, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight

StatusScheduled

VenueAdidas Arena

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 20, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 5:00 AM
Your time

Alou Camara4-0-0Alou Camara vs Garcia KinkelaGarcia KinkelaAnaconda |2-0-0

Alou Camara4-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

4-0-0Record2-0-0

TBDAgeTBD

TBDHeight6'1"

TBDReachTBD

185 lbsWeight170 lbs

MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight

Garcia KinkelaAnaconda2-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alou Camara owns a 39-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Alou Camara and Garcia Kinkela across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Alou CamaraGarcia Kinkela

Recent form

Alou CamaraW W W W · +93 Elo last 4

WWWW

Garcia KinkelaW W · +54 Elo last 2

Elo edge

Alou Camara1593+19 last move

Garcia Kinkela1554+30 last move

Why they are ranked here

Alou Camara#175 of 289 active Middleweight fighters · 1593 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Elie Makongo (rated 1535 at the time): +28.
Last 4 fights: 4 wins, 0 losses, +93 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #174 Joseph Holmes, 1 ahead of #176 Brandon Holmes.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1497 Elo over the last 4 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Garcia Kinkela#288 of 389 active Welterweight fighters · 1554 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jeferson Costa (rated 1537 at the time): +30.
Last 2 fights: 2 wins, 0 losses, +54 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #287 Andre Fialho, 0 ahead of #289 Said-Khusein Akhyadov.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1519 Elo over the last 2 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

54%Alou Camara46%Garcia Kinkela

Model favoriteAlou Camara

Elo baseline56% for Alou Camara

Matchup adjustment-2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Alou CamaraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Alou Camara leads the full model at 54%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1593 · 1554Alou Camara leads by 39 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1497 · 1519Garcia Kinkela faced the stronger recent schedule (4 vs 2 sampled fights).

Elo record depth4 · 2 fightsAlou Camara has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Alou CamaraNow 1593 · #175 Middleweight

Wins by decision+21→ 1614

Loses by decision-27→ 1566

Garcia KinkelaNow 1554 · #288 Welterweight

Wins by decision+27→ 1581

Loses by decision-21→ 1533

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Alou CamaravsGarcia Kinkela

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Alou Camarasubmission leads 50% of wins

Garcia KinkelaKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Alou CamaraGarcia Kinkela

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 4.10

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 48%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.80

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 52%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 1.61

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 58%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

0Wins by knockout1

2Wins by submission0

2Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Alou Camara vs Garcia Kinkela is a scheduled Middleweight fight on ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2. Alou Camara enters with a 4-0-0 record and Garcia Kinkela enters with a 2-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.