Ghassen Jbalia vs Modibo Diakite

Nov 20, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast56%Ghassen Jbalia44%Modibo DiakiteFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 20, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueAdidas Arena

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 20, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 5:00 AM
Your time

Ghassen Jbalia6-1-0Ghassen Jbalia vs Modibo DiakiteModibo DiakiteThe Silent King |4-0-0

Ghassen Jbalia6-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

6-1-0Record4-0-0

TBDAgeTBD

5'8"Height5'10"

TBDReachTBD

144 lbsWeight157 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Modibo DiakiteThe Silent King4-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ghassen Jbalia owns a 11-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Ghassen Jbalia and Modibo Diakite across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Ghassen JbaliaModibo Diakite

Recent form

Ghassen JbaliaL W W W W · +53 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Modibo DiakiteW W W W · +96 Elo last 4

WWWW

Elo edge

Ghassen Jbalia1607-23 last move

Modibo Diakite1596+23 last move

Why they are ranked here

Ghassen Jbalia#239 of 454 active Featherweight fighters · 1607 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Stiven Shehu (rated 1529 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Fabacary Diatta (rated 1646 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +53 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #238 Karol Ryšavý, 0 ahead of #240 Ian Engbrock.

Modibo Diakite#216 of 389 active Welterweight fighters · 1596 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ady Nunes (rated 1500 at the time): +27.
Last 4 fights: 4 wins, 0 losses, +96 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #215 Andreas Stahl, 1 ahead of #217 Jaden Ortega.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1493 Elo over the last 4 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

56%Ghassen Jbalia44%Modibo Diakite

Model favoriteGhassen Jbalia

Elo baseline52% for Ghassen Jbalia

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Ghassen JbaliaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Ghassen Jbalia leads the full model at 56%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 5 points.

Current Elo ratings1607 · 1596Ghassen Jbalia leads by 11 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1515 · 1493Ghassen Jbalia faced the stronger recent schedule (7 vs 4 sampled fights).

Elo record depth7 · 4 fightsGhassen Jbalia has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Ghassen JbaliaNow 1607 · #239 Featherweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1630

Loses by decision-25→ 1582

Modibo DiakiteNow 1596 · #216 Welterweight

Wins by decision+25→ 1621

Loses by decision-23→ 1573

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Ghassen JbaliavsModibo Diakite

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Ghassen Jbaliadecision leads 50% of wins

Modibo DiakiteKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Ghassen JbaliaModibo Diakite

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.90

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 56%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

2Wins by knockout2

1Wins by submission1

3Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Ghassen Jbalia vs Modibo Diakite is a scheduled Featherweight fight on ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2. Ghassen Jbalia enters with a 6-1-0 record and Modibo Diakite enters with a 4-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.