Ibrahima Wade vs Jovan Todorović

Nov 20, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast45%Ibrahima Wade55%Jovan TodorovićFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 20, 2026

DivisionLight Heavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueAdidas Arena

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 20, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 5:00 AM
Your time

Ibrahima WadeIbracadabra |3-1-0Ibrahima Wade vs Jovan TodorovićJovan Todorović2-1-0

Ibrahima WadeIbracadabra3-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

3-1-0Record2-1-0

34AgeTBD

6'3"HeightTBD

TBDReachTBD

205 lbsWeight205 lbs

Light HeavyweightWeight ClassLight Heavyweight

Jovan Todorović2-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ibrahima Wade owns a 34-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Ibrahima Wade and Jovan Todorović across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Ibrahima WadeJovan Todorović

Recent form

Ibrahima WadeW W W L · +55 Elo last 4

WWWL

Jovan TodorovićW L W · +22 Elo last 3

WLW

Elo edge

Ibrahima Wade1555+26 last move

Jovan Todorović1521+24 last move

Why they are ranked here

Ibrahima Wade#150 of 186 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1555 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Cidiri Cisse (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Naib Itayev (rated 1500 at the time): -24.
Last 4 fights: 3 wins, 1 loss, +55 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #149 Kyle Clark, 2 ahead of #151 Kassoum Kone.

Jovan Todorović#165 of 186 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1521 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Aleksandar Joketić (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Suren Manukyan (rated 1500 at the time): -31.
Last 3 fights: 2 wins, 1 loss, +22 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #164 Zdenek Polivka, 2 ahead of #166 Vojtech Garba.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

45%Ibrahima Wade55%Jovan Todorović

Model favoriteJovan Todorović

Elo baseline45% for Jovan Todorović

Matchup adjustment+10 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jovan TodorovićStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Jovan Todorović is 55%, after Elo alone favored Ibrahima Wade at 55%.

Current Elo ratings1555 · 1521Ibrahima Wade leads by 34 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1479 · 1478Ibrahima Wade faced the stronger recent schedule (4 vs 3 sampled fights).

Elo record depth4 · 3 fightsIbrahima Wade has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Ibrahima WadeNow 1555 · #150 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+22→ 1577

Loses by decision-26→ 1529

Jovan TodorovićNow 1521 · #165 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+26→ 1547

Loses by decision-22→ 1499

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Ibrahima WadevsJovan Todorović

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Ibrahima WadeKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Jovan TodorovićKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Ibrahima WadeJovan Todorović

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 4.00

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.71

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 51%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 1.46

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 58%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 0.59

2Wins by knockout1

1Wins by submission1

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Ibrahima Wade vs Jovan Todorović is a scheduled Light Heavyweight fight on ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2. Ibrahima Wade enters with a 3-1-0 record and Jovan Todorović enters with a 2-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.