Cédrick Bégin vs Patricio Peñailillo

Nov 6, 2026 · UFC FIGHT PASS

Combat Edge model forecast54%Cédrick Bégin46%Patricio PeñaililloFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 6, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCasino Du Lac Leamy

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 6, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Fri 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Fri 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Cédrick Bégin0-1-0Cédrick Bégin vs Patricio PeñaililloPatricio Peñailillo0-1-0

Cédrick Bégin0-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

0-1-0Record0-1-0

TBDAgeTBD

TBDHeight5'10"

-ReachTBD

155 lbsWeight167 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Patricio Peñailillo0-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Patricio Peñailillo owns a 5-point Elo edge (average). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Cédrick Bégin and Patricio Peñailillo across their careers →

Recent form

Cédrick BéginL · -29 Elo last 1

Patricio PeñaililloL · -24 Elo last 1

Elo edge

Cédrick Bégin1471-29 last move

Patricio Peñailillo1476-24 last move

Why they are ranked here

Cédrick Bégin#418 of 430 active Lightweight fighters · 1471 Elo

Costliest loss: Lost to Edens Charles (rated 1498 at the time): -29.
Next places: 5 points behind #417 Tysen Herken, 0 ahead of #419 Jarred Gonzales.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1498 Elo over the last 1 fight. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.
Peak: Career high 1500, now 29 below it.

Patricio Peñailillo#345 of 362 active Welterweight fighters · 1476 Elo

Costliest loss: Lost to Joseph Hidalgo (rated 1500 at the time): -24.
Next places: 0 points behind #344 Gábor Boráros, 1 ahead of #346 Axel Nobou.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1500 Elo over the last 1 fight. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.
Peak: Career high 1500, now 24 below it.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

54%Cédrick Bégin46%Patricio Peñailillo

Model favoriteCédrick Bégin

Elo baseline49% for Cédrick Bégin

Matchup adjustment+5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Cédrick BéginStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Cédrick Bégin is 54%, after Elo alone favored Patricio Peñailillo at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1471 · 1476Patricio Peñailillo leads by 5 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1498 · 1500Patricio Peñailillo faced the stronger recent schedule (1 vs 1 sampled fights).

Elo record depth1 · 1 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Cédrick BéginNow 1471 · #418 Lightweight

Wins by decision+24→ 1495

Loses by decision-24→ 1447

Patricio PeñaililloNow 1476 · #345 Welterweight

Wins by decision+24→ 1500

Loses by decision-24→ 1452

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Cédrick BéginvsPatricio Peñailillo

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Cédrick BéginNo tracked pro wins

Patricio PeñaililloNo tracked pro wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Cédrick BéginPatricio Peñailillo

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

0Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Cédrick Bégin vs Patricio Peñailillo is a scheduled Lightweight fight on SAMOURAI MMA 22 : BONIN VS AVELLAN. Cédrick Bégin enters with a 0-1-0 record and Patricio Peñailillo enters with a 0-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.