Fabian Edwards vs Ilian Bouafia

Dec 19, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast63%Fabian Edwards37%Ilian BouafiaFull forecast and your pick

DateDec 19, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight

StatusScheduled

VenueLDLC Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Fabian EdwardsThe Assassin |16-5-0Fabian Edwards vs Ilian BouafiaIlian BouafiaThe Gorilla |8-1-0

Fabian EdwardsThe Assassin16-5-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

16-5-0Record8-1-0

33Age29

6'1"Height6'5"

79"Reach78"

185 lbsWeight185 lbs

MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight

Ilian BouafiaThe Gorilla8-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Fabian Edwards owns a 93-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Fabian Edwards and Ilian Bouafia across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Fabian EdwardsIlian Bouafia

Recent form

Fabian EdwardsL W W W L · +22 Elo last 5

LWWWL

Ilian BouafiaL W W W W · +42 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Fabian Edwards1732-20 last move

Ilian Bouafia1639-33 last move

Why they are ranked here

Fabian Edwards#27 of 254 active Middleweight fighters · 1732 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Gegard Mousasi (rated 1874 at the time): +24.
Costliest loss: Lost to Costello van Steenis (rated 1731 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +22 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #26 Edmen Shahbazyan, 1 ahead of #28 Kerim Engizek.

Ilian Bouafia#113 of 254 active Middleweight fighters · 1639 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Milton Afonso Cabral (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Matthieu Duclos (rated 1618 at the time): -33.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +42 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #112 Laureano Staropoli, 0 ahead of #114 Jake Woodley.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

63%Fabian Edwards37%Ilian Bouafia

Model favoriteFabian Edwards

Elo baseline63% for Fabian Edwards

Matchup adjustment0 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Fabian EdwardsStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Fabian Edwards leads the full model at 63%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model keeps the same probability.

Current Elo ratings1732 · 1639Fabian Edwards leads by 93 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1730 · 1517Fabian Edwards faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth21 · 9 fightsFabian Edwards has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Fabian EdwardsNow 1732 · #27 Middleweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1744

Loses by decision-20→ 1712

Ilian BouafiaNow 1639 · #113 Middleweight

Wins by decision+30→ 1669

Loses by decision-18→ 1621

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Fabian EdwardsvsIlian Bouafia

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Fabian Edwardsdecision leads 44% of wins

Ilian BouafiaKO/TKO leads 63% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Fabian EdwardsIlian Bouafia

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 48%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 52%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 1.62

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

6Wins by knockout5

3Wins by submission1

7Wins by decision2

2Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision0

Fabian Edwards vs Ilian Bouafia is a scheduled Middleweight fight on PFL LYON : LAPILUS VS MCKEE. Fabian Edwards enters with a 16-5-0 record and Ilian Bouafia enters with a 8-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.