Taylor Lapilus vs Mitchell McKee

Dec 19, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast58%Taylor Lapilus42%Mitchell McKeeFull forecast and your pick

DateDec 19, 2026

DivisionBantamweight World Title

StatusScheduled

VenueLDLC Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Taylor LapilusDouble Impact |25-4-0Taylor Lapilus vs Mitchell McKeeMitchell McKeeMerciless |11-0-0

Taylor LapilusDouble Impact25-4-0

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

25-4-0Record11-0-0

34Age28

5'6"Height5'7"

73"Reach66"

135 lbsWeight135 lbs

Bantamweight World TitleWeight ClassBantamweight World Title

Mitchell McKeeMerciless11-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Taylor Lapilus owns a 35-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Taylor Lapilus and Mitchell McKee across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Taylor LapilusMitchell McKee

Recent form

Taylor LapilusW W W W W · +62 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Mitchell McKeeW W W W W · +89 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Taylor Lapilus1758+12 last move

Mitchell McKee1723+19 last move

Why they are ranked here

Taylor Lapilus#19 of 382 active Bantamweight fighters · 1758 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Cody Stamann (rated 1691 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Farid Basharat (rated 1730 at the time): -14.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +62 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #18 Jean Matsumoto, 4 ahead of #20 Cory Sandhagen.

Mitchell McKee#38 of 382 active Bantamweight fighters · 1723 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jalen Jackson (rated 1500 at the time): +26.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +89 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #37 Aiemann Zahabi, 1 ahead of #39 Abdul Hussein.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1539 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

58%Taylor Lapilus42%Mitchell McKee

Model favoriteTaylor Lapilus

Elo baseline55% for Taylor Lapilus

Matchup adjustment+3 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Taylor LapilusStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Taylor Lapilus leads the full model at 58%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 3 points.

Current Elo ratings1758 · 1723Taylor Lapilus leads by 35 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1643 · 1539Taylor Lapilus faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth22 · 11 fightsTaylor Lapilus has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Taylor LapilusNow 1758 · #19 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1772

Loses by decision-18→ 1740

Mitchell McKeeNow 1723 · #38 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1741

Loses by decision-14→ 1709

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Taylor LapilusvsMitchell McKee

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Taylor Lapilusdecision leads 56% of wins

Mitchell McKeeKO/TKO leads 55% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Taylor LapilusMitchell McKee

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.59Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

48Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

2.61Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

63Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

0.27Takedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

33Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

77Takedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

0.27Submission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

5Wins by knockout6

6Wins by submission0

14Wins by decision5

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

4Losses by decision0

Taylor Lapilus vs Mitchell McKee is a scheduled Bantamweight World Title fight on PFL LYON : LAPILUS VS MCKEE. Taylor Lapilus enters with a 25-4-0 record and Mitchell McKee enters with a 11-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.