Abdoul Abdouraguimov vs Andreeas Binder

Dec 19, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast80%Abdoul Abdouraguimov20%Andreeas BinderFull forecast and your pick

DateDec 19, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueLDLC Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Abdoul AbdouraguimovThe Lazy King |20-1-0Abdoul Abdouraguimov vs Andreeas BinderAndreeas BinderJudoka |12-1-0

Abdoul AbdouraguimovThe Lazy King20-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

20-1-0Record12-1-0

31Age30

5'10"Height6'0"

71"Reach-

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Andreeas BinderJudoka12-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Abdoul Abdouraguimov owns a 96-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Abdoul Abdouraguimov and Andreeas Binder across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Abdoul AbdouraguimovAndreeas Binder

Recent form

Abdoul AbdouraguimovW W W W W · +49 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Andreeas BinderW W W W W · +75 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Abdoul Abdouraguimov1772+8 last move

Andreeas Binder1676+16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Abdoul Abdouraguimov#18 of 333 active Welterweight fighters · 1772 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Godofredo Pepey (rated 1598 at the time): +14.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +49 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #17 Ramazan Kuramagomedov, 1 ahead of #19 Thad Jean.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1570 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Andreeas Binder#95 of 333 active Welterweight fighters · 1676 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Rostem Akman (rated 1570 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Roberto Pastuch (rated 1463 at the time): -40.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +75 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #94 Kevin Pease, 1 ahead of #96 Lucas Gabriel.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

80%Abdoul Abdouraguimov20%Andreeas Binder

Model favoriteAbdoul Abdouraguimov

Elo baseline63% for Abdoul Abdouraguimov

Matchup adjustment+17 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Abdoul AbdouraguimovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Abdoul Abdouraguimov leads the full model at 80%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 16 points.

Current Elo ratings1772 · 1676Abdoul Abdouraguimov leads by 96 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1570 · 1504Abdoul Abdouraguimov faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth20 · 14 fightsAbdoul Abdouraguimov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Abdoul AbdouraguimovNow 1772 · #18 Welterweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1784

Loses by decision-20→ 1752

Andreeas BinderNow 1676 · #95 Welterweight

Wins by decision+20→ 1696

Loses by decision-12→ 1664

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Abdoul AbdouraguimovvsAndreeas Binder

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Abdoul Abdouraguimovsubmission leads 60% of wins

Andreeas BinderKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Abdoul AbdouraguimovAndreeas Binder

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.86

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

2Wins by knockout8

12Wins by submission2

6Wins by decision2

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision0

Abdoul Abdouraguimov vs Andreeas Binder is a scheduled Welterweight fight on PFL LYON : LAPILUS VS MCKEE. Abdoul Abdouraguimov enters with a 20-1-0 record and Andreeas Binder enters with a 12-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.