Jesus Pinedo vs Levy Saúl Marroquín

Jul 18, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast63%Jesus Pinedo37%Levy Saúl MarroquínFull forecast

DateJul 18, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueMoody Center

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 18, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Jesus PinedoEl Mudo |26-8-1Jesus Pinedo vs Levy Saúl MarroquínLevy Saúl MarroquínEl Negro |16-3-0

Jesus PinedoEl Mudo26-8-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

26-8-1Record16-3-0

30Age31

5'10"Height5'8"

74"Reach-

145 lbsWeight145 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Levy Saúl MarroquínEl Negro16-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jesus Pinedo owns a 66-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Jesus Pinedo and Levy Saúl Marroquín across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jesus PinedoLevy Saúl Marroquín

Recent form

Jesus PinedoW L L W W · +10 Elo last 5

WLLWW

Levy Saúl MarroquínW W W W L · +22 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Elo edge

Jesus Pinedo1739+9 last move

Levy Saúl Marroquín1673+9 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jesus Pinedo#26 of 401 active Featherweight fighters · 1739 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Brendan Loughnane (rated 1775 at the time): +18.
Costliest loss: Lost to Salamat Isbulaev (rated 1684 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +10 Elo in total.
Next places: 6 points behind #25 Vinicius Oliveira, 0 ahead of #27 José Delano.

Levy Saúl Marroquín#112 of 401 active Featherweight fighters · 1673 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat John Castañeda (rated 1700 at the time): +32.
Costliest loss: Lost to Andrés Quintana (rated 1507 at the time): -30.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +22 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #111 Kaan Ofli, 0 ahead of #113 Mads Burnell.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.5-2026-07-01

63%Jesus Pinedo37%Levy Saúl Marroquín

Model favoriteJesus Pinedo

Elo baseline57% for Jesus Pinedo

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jesus PinedoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jesus Pinedo leads the full model at 63%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 7 points.

Current Elo ratings1739 · 1673Jesus Pinedo leads by 66 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1699 · 1538Jesus Pinedo faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth35 · 17 fightsJesus Pinedo has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Jesus PinedoNow 1739 · #26 Featherweight

Wins by decision+10→ 1749

Loses by decision-14→ 1725

Levy Saúl MarroquínNow 1673 · #112 Featherweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1692

Loses by decision-13→ 1660

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jesus PinedovsLevy Saúl Marroquín

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Jesus PinedoKO/TKO leads 65% of wins

Levy Saúl Marroquínsubmission leads 38% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Jesus PinedoLevy Saúl Marroquín

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.23Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

38Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

4.37Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

53Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

2.50Takedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

100Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

100Takedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

0Submission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

17Wins by knockout4

4Wins by submission6

5Wins by decision6

3Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

4Losses by decision3

Jesus Pinedo vs Levy Saúl Marroquín is a scheduled Fight card fight on PFL AUSTIN : EBLEN VS KASANGANAY 2. Jesus Pinedo enters with a 26-8-1 record and Levy Saúl Marroquín enters with a 16-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.