Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos

Nov 21, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast60%Aljamain Sterling40%Kevin VallejosFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 21, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueABHA Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 21, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Aljamain SterlingFunk Master |26-5-0Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin VallejosKevin VallejosEl Chino |18-1-0

Aljamain SterlingFunk Master26-5-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

26-5-0Record18-1-0

37Age24

5'7"Height5'7"

71"Reach68"

145 lbsWeight155 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Kevin VallejosEl Chino18-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Aljamain Sterling owns a 72-point Elo edge (elite). Aljamain Sterling shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Aljamain Sterling and Kevin Vallejos across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Aljamain SterlingKevin Vallejos

Recent form

Aljamain SterlingW W L W L · -6 Elo last 5

WWLWL

Kevin VallejosW W W W W · +69 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Aljamain Sterling1856+9 last move

Kevin Vallejos1784+17 last move

Why they are ranked here

Aljamain Sterling#3 of 370 active Featherweight fighters · 1856 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat T.J. Dillashaw (rated 1772 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Sean O'Malley (rated 1783 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -6 Elo in total.
Next places: 5 points behind #2 Movsar Evloev, 13 ahead of #4 Movlid Khaybulaev.

Kevin Vallejos#10 of 370 active Featherweight fighters · 1784 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Josh Emmett (rated 1729 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jean Silva (rated 1617 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +69 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #9 Joanderson Brito, 2 ahead of #11 Diego Lopes.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

60%Aljamain Sterling40%Kevin Vallejos

Model favoriteAljamain Sterling

Elo baseline60% for Aljamain Sterling

Matchup adjustment0 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Aljamain SterlingStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Aljamain Sterling leads the full model at 60%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model keeps the same probability.

Current Elo ratings1856 · 1784Aljamain Sterling leads by 72 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1781 · 1589Aljamain Sterling faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth30 · 19 fightsAljamain Sterling has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesAljamain Sterling 3 · 1 Kevin VallejosStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Aljamain Sterling.

What's at stake

Aljamain SterlingNow 1856 · #3 Featherweight

Wins by decision+10→ 1866

Loses by decision-14→ 1842

Kevin VallejosNow 1784 · #10 Featherweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1803

Loses by decision-13→ 1771

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Aljamain SterlingvsKevin Vallejos

Takedown average

2.45vs0.71

Submission average

0.64vs0

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

2.21vs4.71

Takedown defense

45%vs83%

Finishing profile

Aljamain Sterlingdecision leads 54% of wins

Kevin VallejosKO/TKO leads 72% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Aljamain SterlingKevin Vallejos

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.45Sig. strikes landed per min5.78

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

53Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC featherweight average : 46%

2.21Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.71

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

60Sig. strike defense57

UFC featherweight average : 54%

2.45Takedown average0.71

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

31Takedown accuracy29

UFC featherweight average : 29%

45Takedown defense83

UFC featherweight average : 55%

0.64Submission average0

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

3Wins by knockout13

8Wins by submission2

14Wins by decision3

2Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision1

Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos is a scheduled Featherweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : PROCHAZKA VS STIRLING. Aljamain Sterling enters with a 26-5-0 record and Kevin Vallejos enters with a 18-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.