Noah Hermosillo vs Caden Cox

DateOct 16, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueWintrust Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 16, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Fri 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Noah Hermosillo1-0-0Noah Hermosillo vs Caden CoxCaden Cox2-0-0

Noah Hermosillo1-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

1-0-0Record2-0-0

27AgeTBD

5'7"Height5'11"

-Reach70.9"

155 lbsWeight146 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Caden Cox2-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Caden Cox owns a 29-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Noah Hermosillo and Caden Cox across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Noah HermosilloCaden Cox

Recent form

Noah HermosilloW · +26 Elo last 1

Caden CoxW W · +55 Elo last 2

Elo edge

Noah Hermosillo1526+26 last move

Caden Cox1555+26 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

61%Noah Hermosillo39%Caden Cox

Model favoriteNoah Hermosillo

Elo baseline46% for Noah Hermosillo

Matchup adjustment+15 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Noah HermosilloStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Noah Hermosillo is 61%, after Elo alone favored Caden Cox at 54%.

Current Elo ratings1526 · 1555Caden Cox leads by 29 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1529 · 1500Noah Hermosillo faced the stronger recent schedule (1 vs 2 sampled fights).

Elo record depth1 · 2 fightsCaden Cox has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Noah HermosillovsCaden Cox

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Noah Hermosillodecision leads 100% of wins

Caden CoxKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Noah HermosilloCaden Cox

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

0Wins by knockout1

0Wins by submission1

1Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Noah Hermosillo vs Caden Cox is a scheduled Featherweight fight on PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2. Noah Hermosillo enters with a 1-0-0 record and Caden Cox enters with a 2-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.