CAGE WARRIORS 211 ROME : BELLANDI VS VALENTE

Michael Pagani vs Christopher Bajo

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePalapellicone

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 3:00 AM
Your time

Michael PaganiSniper |8-3-0Michael Pagani vs Christopher BajoChristopher Bajo6-4-0

Michael PaganiSniper8-3-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

8-3-0Record6-4-0

27AgeTBD

5'9"Height6'1"

TBDReachTBD

164 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Christopher Bajo6-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Michael Pagani owns a 67-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Michael Pagani and Christopher Bajo across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Michael PaganiChristopher Bajo

Recent form

Michael PaganiL W L L W · -17 Elo last 5

LWLLW

Christopher BajoL W W L W · +17 Elo last 5

LWWLW

Elo edge

Michael Pagani1616-16 last move

Christopher Bajo1549-29 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

65%Michael Pagani35%Christopher Bajo

Model favoriteMichael Pagani

Elo baseline60% for Michael Pagani

Matchup adjustment+5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Michael PaganiStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Michael Pagani leads the full model at 65%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1616 · 1549Michael Pagani leads by 67 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1545 · 1500Michael Pagani faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth11 · 10 fightsMichael Pagani has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Michael PaganivsChristopher Bajo

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Michael PaganiKO/TKO leads 75% of wins

Christopher BajoKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Michael PaganiChristopher Bajo

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.67

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.33

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

6Wins by knockout4

0Wins by submission2

2Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

3Losses by decision3

Michael Pagani vs Christopher Bajo is a scheduled Welterweight fight on CAGE WARRIORS 211 ROME : BELLANDI VS VALENTE. Michael Pagani enters with a 8-3-0 record and Christopher Bajo enters with a 6-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.