Arman Tsarukyan vs Neiman Gracie

Nov 14, 2026 · Fox Nation

Combat Edge model forecast91%Arman Tsarukyan9%Neiman GracieFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionCatchweight Crossover

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastFox Nation

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on Fox Nation.

US East (ET): Sat 11:00 AM
US West (PT): Sat 8:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 4:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 5:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 3:00 AM
Your time

Arman TsarukyanThe Batman / Ahalkalakets |24-3-0Arman Tsarukyan vs Neiman GracieNeiman Gracie13-6-0

Arman TsarukyanThe Batman / Ahalkalakets24-3-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

24-3-0Record13-6-0

30Age37

5'7"Height6'0"

72"Reach73.5"

155 lbsWeight170 lbs

Catchweight CrossoverWeight ClassCatchweight Crossover

Neiman Gracie13-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Arman Tsarukyan owns a 199-point Elo edge (elite). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Arman Tsarukyan and Neiman Gracie across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Arman TsarukyanNeiman Gracie

Recent form

Arman TsarukyanW W W W W · +71 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Neiman GracieL W L W L · -24 Elo last 5

LWLWL

Elo edge

Arman Tsarukyan1851+11 last move

Neiman Gracie1652-11 last move

Why they are ranked here

Arman Tsarukyan#2 of 459 active Lightweight fighters · 1851 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Beneil Dariush (rated 1787 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mateusz Gamrot (rated 1815 at the time): -14.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +71 Elo in total.
Next places: 18 points behind #1 Justin Gaethje, 2 ahead of #3 Usman Nurmagomedov.

Neiman GracieNot on the active ladder · 1652 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jon Fitch (rated 1756 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Goiti Yamauchi (rated 1640 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -24 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1626, not 1652: 26 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

91%Arman Tsarukyan9%Neiman Gracie

Model favoriteArman Tsarukyan

Elo baseline76% for Arman Tsarukyan

Matchup adjustment+15 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Arman TsarukyanStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Arman Tsarukyan leads the full model at 91%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 15 points.

Current Elo ratings1851 · 1652Arman Tsarukyan leads by 199 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1738 · 1660Arman Tsarukyan faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth26 · 19 fightsArman Tsarukyan has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Arman TsarukyanNow 1851 · #2 Lightweight

Wins by decision+6→ 1857

Loses by decision-18→ 1833

Neiman GracieNow 1652

Wins by decision+24→ 1676

Loses by decision-8→ 1644

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Arman TsarukyanvsNeiman Gracie

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Arman TsarukyanKO/TKO leads 42% of wins

Neiman Graciesubmission leads 69% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Arman TsarukyanNeiman Gracie

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.78Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.84

50Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

1.77Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.89

55Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 54%

3.25Takedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.66

3Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

75Takedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 58%

0.10Submission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.54

10Wins by knockout1

6Wins by submission9

8Wins by decision3

1Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision5

Arman Tsarukyan vs Neiman Gracie is a scheduled Catchweight Crossover fight on RAF ABU DHABI : CHIMAEV VS WEIDMAN. Arman Tsarukyan enters with a 24-3-0 record and Neiman Gracie enters with a 13-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.