Umar Nurmagomedov vs Urijah Faber

Nov 14, 2026 · Fox Nation

Combat Edge model forecast91%Umar Nurmagomedov9%Urijah FaberFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionLightweight Crossover

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastFox Nation

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on Fox Nation.

US East (ET): Sat 11:00 AM
US West (PT): Sat 8:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 4:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 5:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 3:00 AM
Your time

Umar Nurmagomedov20-2-0Umar Nurmagomedov vs Urijah FaberUrijah FaberThe California Kid |35-11-0

Umar Nurmagomedov20-2-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

20-2-0Record35-11-0

30Age47

5'8"Height5'6"

69"ReachTBD

135 lbsWeight135 lbs

Lightweight CrossoverWeight ClassLightweight Crossover

Urijah FaberThe California Kid35-11-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Umar Nurmagomedov owns a 34-point Elo edge (great). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Umar Nurmagomedov and Urijah Faber across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Umar NurmagomedovUrijah Faber

Recent form

Umar NurmagomedovL W W L W · +6 Elo last 5

LWWLW

Urijah FaberL W W L L · -18 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Elo edge

Umar Nurmagomedov1803-23 last move

Urijah Faber1769-15 last move

Why they are ranked here

Umar Nurmagomedov#4 of 385 active Bantamweight fighters · 1803 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Raoni Barcelos (rated 1741 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Yadong Song (rated 1755 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +6 Elo in total.
Next places: 12 points behind #3 Sean O'Malley, 7 ahead of #5 Farid Basharat.

Urijah FaberNot on the active ladder · 1769 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ricky Simón (rated 1730 at the time): +13.
Costliest loss: Lost to Petr Yan (rated 1760 at the time): -15.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -18 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1679, not 1769: 90 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

91%Umar Nurmagomedov9%Urijah Faber

Model favoriteUmar Nurmagomedov

Elo baseline55% for Umar Nurmagomedov

Matchup adjustment+36 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Umar NurmagomedovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Umar Nurmagomedov leads the full model at 91%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 36 points.

Current Elo ratings1803 · 1769Umar Nurmagomedov leads by 34 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1744 · 1690Umar Nurmagomedov faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth22 · 45 fightsUrijah Faber has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesUmar Nurmagomedov 2 · 2 Urijah FaberStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Urijah Faber.

What's at stake

Umar NurmagomedovNow 1803 · #4 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1817

Loses by decision-18→ 1785

Urijah FaberNow 1769

Wins by decision+13→ 1782

Loses by decision-11→ 1758

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Umar NurmagomedovvsUrijah Faber

Submission average

0.22vs0.85

Takedown accuracy

8%vs21%

Takedown average

3.94vs1.54

Sig. strikes landed per min

3.76vs2.65

Finishing profile

Umar Nurmagomedovdecision leads 55% of wins

Urijah Fabersubmission leads 49% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Umar NurmagomedovUrijah Faber

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.76Sig. strikes landed per min2.65

UFC bantamweight average : 3.73

57Sig. strike accuracy41

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

1.85Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.59

UFC bantamweight average : 3.74

61Sig. strike defense64

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

3.94Takedown average1.54

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

8Takedown accuracy21

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

79Takedown defense58

UFC bantamweight average : 60%

0.22Submission average0.85

UFC bantamweight average : 0.53

2Wins by knockout10

7Wins by submission17

11Wins by decision7

1Losses by knockout4

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision7

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Urijah Faber is a scheduled Lightweight Crossover fight on RAF ABU DHABI : CHIMAEV VS WEIDMAN. Umar Nurmagomedov enters with a 20-2-0 record and Urijah Faber enters with a 35-11-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.