Anthony Hernandez15-4-0
Gregory Rodrigues20-6-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Gregory Rodrigues won
60%Anthony Hernandez40%Gregory Rodrigues
Combat Edge Model · Full card
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues predictions
Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues (August 22, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
13Total bouts
13Frozen forecasts
2Close matchups
7Model / Elo splits
3Strong model leans
LockedFight card started
Card intelligence
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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.
Showing all 13 matchups.
Main card
Main card predictions
6 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Serghei Spivac18-7-0
Vitor Petrino15-2-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Vitor Petrino won
37%Serghei Spivac63%Vitor Petrino
Roman Dolidze15-6-0
Reinier de Ridder22-4-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Reinier de Ridder won
33%Roman Dolidze67%Reinier de Ridder
MarQuel Mederos12-1-1
Mason Jones18-3-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · MarQuel Mederos won
40%MarQuel Mederos60%Mason Jones
Carli Judice7-2-0
Jeisla Chaves8-1-0
Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Carli Judice won
51%Carli Judice49%Jeisla Chaves
Terrance Chatman5-2-0
Anthony Wint9-0-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Anthony Wint won
13%Terrance Chatman87%Anthony Wint
Prelims
Prelims predictions
7 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Jamall Emmers23-8-0
Lerryan Douglas14-6-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Jamall Emmers won
40%Jamall Emmers60%Lerryan Douglas
Kennedy Nzechukwu14-7-1
Shamil Gaziev15-3-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Shamil Gaziev won
56%Kennedy Nzechukwu45%Shamil Gaziev
Chris Padilla18-6-1
Nasrat Haqparast18-7-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Chris Padilla won
60%Chris Padilla40%Nasrat Haqparast
Márcio Barbosa19-2-0
Ryan Kuse10-3-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Márcio Barbosa won
71%Márcio Barbosa29%Ryan Kuse
Gauge Young11-4-0
Stan Dorsainvil6-0-0
Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Stan Dorsainvil won
48%Gauge Young52%Stan Dorsainvil
Wes Schultz9-4-0
Jackson McVey8-2-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Jackson McVey won
40%Wes Schultz60%Jackson McVey
Shanelle Dyer8-1-0
Elise Reed8-6-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Shanelle Dyer won
79%Shanelle Dyer21%Elise Reed