UFC FIGHT NIGHT : SALKILLD VS SAINT DENIS

Bogdan Guskov vs Robert Whittaker

Feb 6, 2027 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast44%Bogdan Guskov56%Robert WhittakerFull forecast and your pick

DateFeb 6, 2027

DivisionLight Heavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueAfterpay Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, February 6, 2027 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 5:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 2:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 10:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 11:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 9:00 AM
Your time

Bogdan Guskov18-4-1Bogdan Guskov vs Robert WhittakerRobert WhittakerThe Reaper |27-9-0

Bogdan Guskov18-4-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

18-4-1Record27-9-0

34Age35

6'2"Height6'0"

76"Reach73"

205 lbsWeight186 lbs

Light HeavyweightWeight ClassLight Heavyweight

Robert WhittakerThe Reaper27-9-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Robert Whittaker owns a 34-point Elo edge (great). Robert Whittaker shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Bogdan Guskov and Robert Whittaker across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Bogdan GuskovRobert Whittaker

Recent form

Bogdan GuskovL D W W W · +43 Elo last 5

LDWWW

Robert WhittakerW L L W W · +18 Elo last 5

WLLWW

Elo edge

Bogdan Guskov1719-13 last move

Robert Whittaker1753+13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Bogdan Guskov#24 of 185 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1719 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ryan Spann (rated 1703 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Volkan Oezdemir (rated 1676 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 1 loss, +43 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #23 Volkan Oezdemir, 6 ahead of #25 Dovlet Yagshimuradov.

Robert Whittaker#12 of 185 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1753 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Marvin Vettori (rated 1732 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Khamzat Chimaev (rated 1807 at the time): -13.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +18 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #11 Paulo Costa, 1 ahead of #13 Edil Esengulov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

44%Bogdan Guskov56%Robert Whittaker

Model favoriteRobert Whittaker

Elo baseline55% for Robert Whittaker

Matchup adjustment+1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Robert WhittakerStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Robert Whittaker leads the full model at 56%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1719 · 1753Robert Whittaker leads by 34 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1628 · 1755Robert Whittaker faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth22 · 31 fightsRobert Whittaker has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesBogdan Guskov 1 · 3 Robert WhittakerStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Robert Whittaker.

What's at stake

Bogdan GuskovNow 1719 · #24 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1737

Loses by decision-14→ 1705

Robert WhittakerNow 1753 · #12 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1764

Loses by decision-13→ 1740

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

PremiumRun the what-if simulator

Pick the winner and the method to see both fighters' new ratings, new division ranks and who they'd pass.

Go Premium to run itZero ads included · from $5/mo

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Bogdan GuskovvsRobert Whittaker

Takedown average

0vs0.73

Takedown defense

50%vs82%

Sig. strike defense

50%vs60%

Sig. strike accuracy

51%vs43%

Finishing profile

Bogdan GuskovKO/TKO leads 83% of wins

Robert WhittakerKO/TKO leads 41% of wins

Common opponents

Nikita Krylov Bogdan Guskov: win · KO (punches) · Jul 26, 2025 Robert Whittaker: win · TKO (punches) · Jul 11, 2026

Tale of the tape

Bogdan GuskovRobert Whittaker

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.87Sig. strikes landed per min4.39

UFC light heavyweight average : 4.00

51Sig. strike accuracy43

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

3.40Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.36

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.71

50Sig. strike defense60

UFC light heavyweight average : 51%

0Takedown average0.73

UFC light heavyweight average : 1.46

Not availableTakedown accuracy10

UFC light heavyweight average : 26%

50Takedown defense82

UFC light heavyweight average : 58%

0Submission average0

UFC light heavyweight average : 0.59

15Wins by knockout11

3Wins by submission5

0Wins by decision11

2Losses by knockout3

1Losses by submission2

1Losses by decision4

Bogdan Guskov vs Robert Whittaker is a scheduled Light Heavyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : SALKILLD VS SAINT DENIS. Bogdan Guskov enters with a 18-4-1 record and Robert Whittaker enters with a 27-9-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.