Diana Avsaragova vs Julianna Peña

Nov 14, 2026 · Fox Nation

Combat Edge model forecast39%Diana Avsaragova61%Julianna PeñaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight Crossover

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastFox Nation

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on Fox Nation.

US East (ET): Sat 11:00 AM
US West (PT): Sat 8:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 4:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 5:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 3:00 AM
Your time

Diana AvsaragovaPantera |0-0-0Diana Avsaragova vs Julianna PeñaJulianna PeñaThe Venezuelan Vixen |11-6-0

Diana AvsaragovaPantera0-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

0-0-0Record11-6-0

28Age37

5'5"Height5'7"

66"Reach69"

150 lbsWeight135 lbs

Middleweight CrossoverWeight ClassMiddleweight Crossover

Julianna PeñaThe Venezuelan Vixen11-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Julianna Peña owns a 68-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Diana Avsaragova and Julianna Peña across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Diana AvsaragovaJulianna Peña

Recent form

Diana AvsaragovaL L W W W · -9 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Julianna PeñaL W L W W · +43 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Elo edge

Diana Avsaragova1565-24 last move

Julianna Peña1633-13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Diana Avsaragova#1 of 1 active Women Middleweight fighters · 1565 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Alina Makarova (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Justine Kish (rated 1554 at the time): -28.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -9 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1562, not 1565: 3 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Julianna Peña#17 of 66 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1633 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Amanda Nunes (rated 1804 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Valentina Shevchenko (rated 1696 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +43 Elo in total.
Next places: 6 points behind #16 Miesha Tate, 3 ahead of #18 Lisa Zimmo.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

39%Diana Avsaragova61%Julianna Peña

Model favoriteJulianna Peña

Elo baseline60% for Julianna Peña

Matchup adjustment+1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Julianna PeñaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Julianna Peña leads the full model at 61%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1565 · 1633Julianna Peña leads by 68 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1511 · 1678Julianna Peña faced the stronger recent schedule (8 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth8 · 18 fightsJulianna Peña has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Diana AvsaragovaNow 1565 · #1 Women Middleweight

Wins by decision+29→ 1594

Loses by decision-19→ 1546

Julianna PeñaNow 1633 · #17 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1646

Loses by decision-19→ 1614

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Diana AvsaragovavsJulianna Peña

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Diana AvsaragovaNo tracked pro wins

Julianna Peñasubmission leads 45% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Diana AvsaragovaJulianna Peña

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min3.10

UFC middleweight average : 4.10

Not availableSig. strike accuracy44

UFC middleweight average : 48%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min2.56

UFC middleweight average : 3.80

Not availableSig. strike defense57

UFC middleweight average : 52%

Not availableTakedown average1.70

UFC middleweight average : 1.61

Not availableTakedown accuracy27

UFC middleweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defense24

UFC middleweight average : 58%

Not availableSubmission average0.76

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

0Wins by knockout3

0Wins by submission5

0Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission3

0Losses by decision2

Diana Avsaragova vs Julianna Peña is a scheduled Middleweight Crossover fight on RAF ABU DHABI : CHIMAEV VS WEIDMAN. Diana Avsaragova enters with a 0-0-0 record and Julianna Peña enters with a 11-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.