Fedor Duric vs Marc Diakiese

DateSep 26, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueDeutsche Bank Park

BroadcastOKTAGON PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on OKTAGON PASS.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 2:00 AM
Your time

Fedor Duric10-1-0Fedor Duric vs Marc DiakieseMarc DiakieseBonecrusher |18-8-0

Fedor Duric10-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

10-1-0Record18-8-0

22Age33

6'1"Height5'10"

-Reach73"

156 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Marc DiakieseBonecrusher18-8-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Fedor Duric owns a 40-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Fedor Duric and Marc Diakiese across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Fedor DuricMarc Diakiese

Recent form

Fedor DuricW W L W W · +44 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Marc DiakieseL W W L L · -21 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Elo edge

Fedor Duric1681+19 last move

Marc Diakiese1641-10 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

70%Fedor Duric30%Marc Diakiese

Model favoriteFedor Duric

Elo baseline56% for Fedor Duric

Matchup adjustment+14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Fedor DuricStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Fedor Duric leads the full model at 70%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 14 points.

Current Elo ratings1681 · 1641Fedor Duric leads by 40 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1524 · 1632Marc Diakiese faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth11 · 26 fightsMarc Diakiese has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Fedor DuricvsMarc Diakiese

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Fedor Duricsubmission leads 50% of wins

Marc Diakiesedecision leads 61% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Fedor DuricMarc Diakiese

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min2.54

UFC lightweight average : 3.83

Not availableSig. strike accuracy40

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min2.64

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defense53

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown average3.29

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

Not availableTakedown accuracy10

UFC lightweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defense67

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.49

3Wins by knockout6

5Wins by submission1

2Wins by decision11

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission3

1Losses by decision4

Fedor Duric vs Marc Diakiese is a scheduled Lightweight fight on OKTAGON 94 : ECKERLIN VS KOZMA. Fedor Duric enters with a 10-1-0 record and Marc Diakiese enters with a 18-8-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.