Jhonata Diniz vs José Luiz

Jun 20, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast67%Jhonata Diniz33%José MontanhaFull forecast

DateJun 20, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, June 20, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Jhonata Diniz9-2-0Jhonata Diniz vs José LuizJosé Montanha6-1-0

Jhonata Diniz9-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

9-2-0Record6-1-0

35Age30

6'4"Height6'4"

79"Reach76"

255 lbsWeight265 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

José Montanha6-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jhonata Diniz owns a 60-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Jhonata Diniz and José Montanha across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jhonata DinizJosé Montanha

Recent form

Jhonata DinizL W L W W · +31 Elo last 5

LWLWW

José MontanhaW W W W L · +84 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Elo edge

Jhonata Diniz1672-18 last move

José Montanha1612+31 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jhonata Diniz#53 of 184 active Heavyweight fighters · 1672 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Eduardo Neves (rated 1632 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Marcin Tybura (rated 1726 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +31 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #52 Alexander Poppeck, 0 ahead of #54 Tallison Teixeira.

José Montanha#103 of 184 active Heavyweight fighters · 1612 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Louie Sutherland (rated 1605 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Richard Jacobi (rated 1500 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +84 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #102 Hidetaka Arato, 0 ahead of #104 Zach Nishimwe.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v3-2026-06-10

67%Jhonata Diniz33%José Montanha

Model favoriteJhonata Diniz

Elo baseline62% for Jhonata Diniz

Matchup adjustment+5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jhonata DinizStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jhonata Diniz leads the full model at 67%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 5 points.

Current Elo ratings1672 · 1612Jhonata Diniz leads by 60 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1596 · 1518Jhonata Diniz faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 6 sampled fights).

Elo record depth11 · 6 fightsJhonata Diniz has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Jhonata DinizNow 1672 · #53 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1685

Loses by decision-19→ 1653

José MontanhaNow 1612 · #103 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+28→ 1640

Loses by decision-20→ 1592

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jhonata DinizvsJosé Montanha

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Jhonata DinizKO/TKO leads 78% of wins

José Montanhasubmission leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Jhonata DinizJosé Montanha

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.89Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

56Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

3.62Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 3.92

57Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

0Takedown averageNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 30%

70Takedown defenseNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

0Submission averageNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 0.44

7Wins by knockout2

0Wins by submission4

2Wins by decision0

2Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Jhonata Diniz vs José Luiz is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : KAPE VS HORIGUCHI. Jhonata Diniz enters with a 9-2-0 record and José Montanha enters with a 6-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.