Rashid Vagabov vs Marciano Ferreira

Oct 22, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast67%Rashid Vagabov33%Marciano FerreiraFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 22, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueADNEC Marina

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Thursday, October 22, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Thu 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Thu 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Thu 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Thu 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Fri 4:00 AM
Your time

Rashid VagabovRambo |15-2-0Rashid Vagabov vs Marciano FerreiraMarciano Ferreira15-5-0

Rashid VagabovRambo15-2-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

15-2-0Record15-5-0

28Age33

5'7"Height5'6"

TBDReachTBD

125 lbsWeight126 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Marciano Ferreira15-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Rashid Vagabov owns a 71-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Rashid Vagabov and Marciano Ferreira across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Rashid VagabovMarciano Ferreira

Recent form

Rashid VagabovW W W W W · +44 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Marciano FerreiraW L W L W · +1 Elo last 5

WLWLW

Elo edge

Rashid Vagabov1697+6 last move

Marciano Ferreira1626+16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Rashid Vagabov#29 of 213 active Flyweight fighters · 1697 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Lun Qiu (rated 1613 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mansur Malachiev (rated 1500 at the time): -40.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +44 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #28 Lucas Rocha, 3 ahead of #30 Alex Perez.

Marciano Ferreira#91 of 213 active Flyweight fighters · 1626 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Eduardo Castro (rated 1609 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Magomed Idrisov (rated 1493 at the time): -22.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +1 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #90 Jimmy Flick, 0 ahead of #92 Ryohei Kurosawa.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

67%Rashid Vagabov33%Marciano Ferreira

Model favoriteRashid Vagabov

Elo baseline60% for Rashid Vagabov

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Rashid VagabovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Rashid Vagabov leads the full model at 67%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 7 points.

Current Elo ratings1697 · 1626Rashid Vagabov leads by 71 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1510 · 1520Marciano Ferreira faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth18 · 20 fightsMarciano Ferreira has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Rashid VagabovNow 1697 · #29 Flyweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1710

Loses by decision-19→ 1678

Marciano FerreiraNow 1626 · #91 Flyweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1645

Loses by decision-13→ 1613

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Rashid VagabovvsMarciano Ferreira

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Rashid Vagabovdecision leads 40% of wins

Marciano Ferreiradecision leads 47% of wins

Common opponents

Denis AraujoRashid Vagabov: win · Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) · Feb 22, 2025Marciano Ferreira: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jun 17, 2023

Tale of the tape

Rashid VagabovMarciano Ferreira

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

5Wins by knockout6

4Wins by submission2

6Wins by decision7

0Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission2

1Losses by decision2

Rashid Vagabov vs Marciano Ferreira is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UAE WARRIORS 74 : OLIVEIRA VS ABDUEVA. Rashid Vagabov enters with a 15-2-0 record and Marciano Ferreira enters with a 15-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.