Ryujin Nasukawa vs Raichi Nagai

Nov 18, 2026 · Internet PPV

Combat Edge model forecast67%Ryujin Nasukawa33%Raichi NagaiFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 18, 2026

DivisionStrawweight Kickboxing

StatusScheduled

VenueEBARA WAVE Arena Ota

BroadcastInternet PPV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Wednesday, November 18, 2026 — watch on Internet PPV.

US East (ET): Wed 3:30 AM
US West (PT): Wed 12:30 AM
United Kingdom: Wed 8:30 AM
Central Europe: Wed 9:30 AM
Australia (Sydney): Wed 7:30 PM
Your time

Ryujin Nasukawa1-0-0Ryujin Nasukawa vs Raichi NagaiRaichi Nagai0-0-0

Ryujin Nasukawa1-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

1-0-0Record0-0-0

20AgeTBD

5'5"HeightTBD

-Reach-

119 lbsWeight125 lbs

Strawweight KickboxingWeight ClassStrawweight Kickboxing

Raichi Nagai0-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

The Elo matchup is close or still provisional. Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Ryujin Nasukawa and Raichi Nagai across their careers →

Recent form

Ryujin NasukawaW · +29 Elo last 1

Raichi NagaiNo counted pro MMA fights yet

No recent Elo history

Elo edge

Ryujin Nasukawa1529+29 last move

Raichi NagaiTBDTBD last move

Why they are ranked here

Ryujin NasukawaNot on the active ladder · 1529 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jong Min Shin (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Inactivity: Placed on 1479, not 1529: 50 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.
Activity: Not on the active ladder: no rated fight in the last 24 months.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1500 Elo over the last 1 fight. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

67%Ryujin Nasukawa33%Raichi Nagai

Model favoriteRyujin Nasukawa

Elo baseline54% for Ryujin Nasukawa

Matchup adjustment+13 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Ryujin NasukawaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Ryujin Nasukawa leads the full model at 67%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 13 points.

Current Elo ratingsNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Recent opponent qualityNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Elo record depthNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Ryujin NasukawaNow 1529

Wins by decision+22→ 1551

Loses by decision-26→ 1503

Raichi NagaiNow 1500

Wins by decision+26→ 1526

Loses by decision-22→ 1478

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Ryujin NasukawavsRaichi Nagai

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Ryujin NasukawaKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Raichi NagaiNo tracked pro wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Ryujin NasukawaRaichi Nagai

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC strawweight average : 4.14

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC strawweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC strawweight average : 4.13

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC strawweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC strawweight average : 1.36

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC strawweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC strawweight average : 60%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC strawweight average : 0.44

1Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Ryujin Nasukawa vs Raichi Nagai is a scheduled Strawweight Kickboxing fight on ONE SAMURAI 5 : PACIO VS YAMAKITA. Ryujin Nasukawa enters with a 1-0-0 record and Raichi Nagai enters with a 0-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.