Tatsumitsu Wada vs Jarred Brooks

Nov 18, 2026 · Internet PPV

Combat Edge model forecast18%Tatsumitsu Wada82%Jarred BrooksFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 18, 2026

DivisionStrawweight MMA

StatusScheduled

VenueEBARA WAVE Arena Ota

BroadcastInternet PPV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Wednesday, November 18, 2026 — watch on Internet PPV.

US East (ET): Wed 3:30 AM
US West (PT): Wed 12:30 AM
United Kingdom: Wed 8:30 AM
Central Europe: Wed 9:30 AM
Australia (Sydney): Wed 7:30 PM
Your time

Tatsumitsu WadaThe Sweeper |26-14-2Tatsumitsu Wada vs Jarred BrooksJarred BrooksThe Monkey God |21-6-0

Tatsumitsu WadaThe Sweeper26-14-2

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

26-14-2Record21-6-0

37Age33

5'7"Height5'3"

69.3"Reach62"

135 lbsWeight125 lbs

Strawweight MMAWeight ClassStrawweight MMA

Jarred BrooksThe Monkey God21-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jarred Brooks owns a 55-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Tatsumitsu Wada and Jarred Brooks across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Tatsumitsu WadaJarred Brooks

Recent form

Tatsumitsu WadaW L L W W · -9 Elo last 5

WLLWW

Jarred BrooksL L L W L · -66 Elo last 5

LLLWL

Elo edge

Tatsumitsu Wada1645+6 last move

Jarred Brooks1700-21 last move

Why they are ranked here

Tatsumitsu Wada#3 of 10 active Strawweight fighters · 1645 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ernesto Montilla Jr. (rated 1479 at the time): +8.
Costliest loss: Lost to Avazbek Kholmirzaev (rated 1480 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -9 Elo in total.
Next places: 22 points behind #2 Anastasia Nikolakakos, 14 ahead of #4 Aleksandra Savicheva.

Jarred Brooks#24 of 235 active Flyweight fighters · 1700 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Lito Adiwang (rated 1663 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mansur Malachiev (rated 1559 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 1 win, 4 losses, -66 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #23 Davi Bittencourt, 0 ahead of #25 Muhidin Abubakar.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

18%Tatsumitsu Wada82%Jarred Brooks

Model favoriteJarred Brooks

Elo baseline58% for Jarred Brooks

Matchup adjustment+24 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jarred BrooksStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jarred Brooks leads the full model at 82%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 24 points.

Current Elo ratings1645 · 1700Jarred Brooks leads by 55 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1528 · 1617Jarred Brooks faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth39 · 26 fightsTatsumitsu Wada has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Tatsumitsu WadaNow 1645 · #3 Strawweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1659

Loses by decision-10→ 1635

Jarred BrooksNow 1700 · #24 Flyweight

Wins by decision+10→ 1710

Loses by decision-14→ 1686

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Tatsumitsu WadavsJarred Brooks

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Tatsumitsu Wadadecision leads 62% of wins

Jarred Brooksdecision leads 48% of wins

Common opponents

Reece McLarenTatsumitsu Wada: loss · Decision (Split) · Jul 7, 2018Jarred Brooks: loss · Decision (Split) · Dec 6, 2024

Gustavo BalartTatsumitsu Wada: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Apr 12, 2019Jarred Brooks: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Aug 2, 2024

Haruo OchiTatsumitsu Wada: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Dec 22, 2013Jarred Brooks: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Dec 28, 2019

Tale of the tape

Tatsumitsu WadaJarred Brooks

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min2.12

UFC strawweight average : 4.14

Not availableSig. strike accuracy46

UFC strawweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min1.66

UFC strawweight average : 4.13

Not availableSig. strike defense63

UFC strawweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown average4.54

UFC strawweight average : 1.36

Not availableTakedown accuracy57

UFC strawweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defense69

UFC strawweight average : 60%

Not availableSubmission average0.57

UFC strawweight average : 0.44

5Wins by knockout2

5Wins by submission9

16Wins by decision10

1Losses by knockout2

3Losses by submission1

10Losses by decision2

Tatsumitsu Wada vs Jarred Brooks is a scheduled Strawweight MMA fight on ONE SAMURAI 5 : PACIO VS YAMAKITA. Tatsumitsu Wada enters with a 26-14-2 record and Jarred Brooks enters with a 21-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.