Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira

Dec 12, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast61%Sergei Pavlovich39%Alex PereiraFull forecast and your pick

DateDec 12, 2026

DivisionHeavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueT-Mobile Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, December 12, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Sergei Pavlovich21-3-0Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex PereiraAlex PereiraPoatan |13-4-0

Sergei Pavlovich21-3-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

21-3-0Record13-4-0

34Age39

6'3"Height6'4"

84"Reach 79"

260 lbsWeight205 lbs

HeavyweightWeight ClassHeavyweight

Alex PereiraPoatan13-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Sergei Pavlovich owns a 22-point Elo edge (great). Alex Pereira shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Sergei Pavlovich and Alex Pereira across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Sergei PavlovichAlex Pereira

Recent form

Sergei PavlovichW W W L L · +3 Elo last 5

WWWLL

Alex PereiraL W L W W · +26 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Elo edge

Sergei Pavlovich1809+13 last move

Alex Pereira1787-19 last move

Why they are ranked here

Sergei Pavlovich#6 of 173 active Heavyweight fighters · 1809 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Derrick Lewis (rated 1786 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Tom Aspinall (rated 1728 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +3 Elo in total.
Next places: 10 points behind #5 Vadim Nemkov, 7 ahead of #7 Oleg Popov.

Alex Pereira#11 of 173 active Heavyweight fighters · 1787 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Israel Adesanya (rated 1850 at the time): +43.
Costliest loss: Lost to Israel Adesanya (rated 1822 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +26 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #10 Ivan Shtyrkov, 6 ahead of #12 Curtis Blaydes.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

61%Sergei Pavlovich39%Alex Pereira

Model favoriteSergei Pavlovich

Elo baseline53% for Sergei Pavlovich

Matchup adjustment+8 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Sergei PavlovichStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Sergei Pavlovich leads the full model at 61%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 8 points.

Current Elo ratings1809 · 1787Sergei Pavlovich leads by 22 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1730 · 1805Alex Pereira faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth24 · 17 fightsSergei Pavlovich has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesSergei Pavlovich 1 · 3 Alex PereiraStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Sergei Pavlovich.

What's at stake

Sergei PavlovichNow 1809 · #6 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1824

Loses by decision-17→ 1792

Alex PereiraNow 1787 · #11 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1804

Loses by decision-15→ 1772

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Sergei PavlovichvsAlex Pereira

Takedown average

0.47vs0.11

Sig. strike accuracy

45%vs61%

Submission average

0vs0.22

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.49vs5.01

Finishing profile

Sergei PavlovichKO/TKO leads 76% of wins

Alex PereiraKO/TKO leads 85% of wins

Common opponents

Ciryl GaneSergei Pavlovich: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Aug 8, 2020Alex Pereira: loss · Left Hook & Punches (Standing TKO) · Jun 14, 2026

Ciryl GaneSergei Pavlovich: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Aug 8, 2020Alex Pereira: loss · TKO (punches) · Jun 14, 2026

Tale of the tape

Sergei PavlovichAlex Pereira

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.49Sig. strikes landed per min5.01

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

45Sig. strike accuracy61

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

3.58Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.72

UFC heavyweight average : 3.92

56Sig. strike defense53

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

0.47Takedown average0.11

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

0Takedown accuracy0

UFC heavyweight average : 30%

75Takedown defense80

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

0Submission average0.22

UFC heavyweight average : 0.44

16Wins by knockout11

0Wins by submission0

5Wins by decision2

2Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision1

Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira is a scheduled Heavyweight fight on UFC 335 : OLIVEIRA VS LOPES. Sergei Pavlovich enters with a 21-3-0 record and Alex Pereira enters with a 13-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.