Quentin Pasley vs Junior Tafa

Dec 12, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast63%Quentin Pasley37%Junior TafaFull forecast and your pick

DateDec 12, 2026

DivisionLight Heavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueT-Mobile Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, December 12, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Quentin Pasley4-0-0Quentin Pasley vs Junior TafaJunior TafaThe Juggernaut |7-6-0

Quentin Pasley4-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

4-0-0Record7-6-0

25Age30

6'4"Height6'3"

78"Reach75"

205 lbsWeight249 lbs

Light HeavyweightWeight ClassLight Heavyweight

Junior TafaThe Juggernaut7-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Quentin Pasley owns a 47-point Elo edge (solid). Quentin Pasley shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Quentin Pasley and Junior Tafa across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Quentin PasleyJunior Tafa

Recent form

Quentin PasleyW W W W · +110 Elo last 4

WWWW

Junior TafaL W L L W · -6 Elo last 5

LWLLW

Elo edge

Quentin Pasley1611+31 last move

Junior Tafa1564-13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Quentin Pasley#96 of 183 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1611 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Arlind Berisha (rated 1612 at the time): +31.
Last 4 fights: 4 wins, 0 losses, +110 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #95 Evgeny Egemberdiev, 1 ahead of #97 Isaac Muluh.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1528 Elo over the last 4 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Junior Tafa#140 of 183 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1564 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Tsuyoshi Sudario (rated 1618 at the time): +32.
Costliest loss: Lost to Tuco Tokkos (rated 1590 at the time): -30.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -6 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #139 Fábio Maldonado, 2 ahead of #141 Kevin Christian.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

63%Quentin Pasley37%Junior Tafa

Model favoriteQuentin Pasley

Elo baseline57% for Quentin Pasley

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Quentin PasleyStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Quentin Pasley leads the full model at 63%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 7 points.

Current Elo ratings1611 · 1564Quentin Pasley leads by 47 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1528 · 1631Junior Tafa faced the stronger recent schedule (4 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth4 · 13 fightsJunior Tafa has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesQuentin Pasley 3 · 1 Junior TafaStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Quentin Pasley.

What's at stake

Quentin PasleyNow 1611 · #96 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+21→ 1632

Loses by decision-27→ 1584

Junior TafaNow 1564 · #140 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1582

Loses by decision-14→ 1550

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Quentin PasleyvsJunior Tafa

Takedown average

3.20vs0

Sig. strikes landed per min

5.98vs3.53

Takedown defense

100%vs73%

Sig. strike defense

39%vs52%

Finishing profile

Quentin PasleyKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Junior TafaKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Quentin PasleyJunior Tafa

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.98Sig. strikes landed per min3.53

UFC light heavyweight average : 4.02

62Sig. strike accuracy52

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

2.99Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.70

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.73

39Sig. strike defense52

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

3.20Takedown average0

UFC light heavyweight average : 1.39

0Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 26%

100Takedown defense73

UFC light heavyweight average : 58%

0Submission average0

UFC light heavyweight average : 0.59

4Wins by knockout7

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission3

0Losses by decision1

Quentin Pasley vs Junior Tafa is a scheduled Light Heavyweight fight on UFC 335 : OLIVEIRA VS LOPES. Quentin Pasley enters with a 4-0-0 record and Junior Tafa enters with a 7-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.