Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes

Dec 12, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast42%Charles Oliveira58%Diego LopesFull forecast and your pick

DateDec 12, 2026

DivisionBMF TITLE Lightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueT-Mobile Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, December 12, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Charles Oliveirado Bronx |37-11-0Charles Oliveira vs Diego LopesDiego Lopes28-8-0

Charles Oliveirado Bronx37-11-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

37-11-0Record28-8-0

36Age31

5'10"Height5'11"

74"Reach72"

155 lbsWeight161 lbs

BMF TITLE LightweightWeight ClassBMF TITLE Lightweight

Diego Lopes28-8-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Charles Oliveira owns a 30-point Elo edge (great). Charles Oliveira shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Charles Oliveira and Diego Lopes across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Charles OliveiraDiego Lopes

Recent form

Charles OliveiraW W L L W · +4 Elo last 5

WWLLW

Diego LopesW L W L W · +17 Elo last 5

WLWLW

Elo edge

Charles Oliveira1812+13 last move

Diego Lopes1782+13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Charles Oliveira#7 of 387 active Lightweight fighters · 1812 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mateusz Gamrot (rated 1836 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Alan Silva (rated 1525 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +4 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #6 Mateusz Gamrot, 0 ahead of #8 Dustin Poirier.

Diego Lopes#11 of 370 active Featherweight fighters · 1782 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Pat Sabatini (rated 1727 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Movsar Evloev (rated 1803 at the time): -11.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +17 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #10 Kevin Vallejos, 1 ahead of #12 Timur Khizriev.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

42%Charles Oliveira58%Diego Lopes

Model favoriteDiego Lopes

Elo baseline46% for Diego Lopes

Matchup adjustment+12 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Diego LopesStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Diego Lopes is 58%, after Elo alone favored Charles Oliveira at 54%.

Current Elo ratings1812 · 1782Charles Oliveira leads by 30 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1767 · 1755Charles Oliveira faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth42 · 30 fightsCharles Oliveira has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesCharles Oliveira 4 · 0 Diego LopesStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Charles Oliveira.

What's at stake

Charles OliveiraNow 1812 · #7 Lightweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1823

Loses by decision-13→ 1799

Diego LopesNow 1782 · #11 Featherweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1795

Loses by decision-11→ 1771

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Charles OliveiravsDiego Lopes

Takedown accuracy

23%vs0%

Takedown average

2.29vs0.82

Submission average

2.59vs1.30

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3.05vs4.65

Finishing profile

Charles Oliveirasubmission leads 59% of wins

Diego LopesKO/TKO leads 43% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Charles OliveiraDiego Lopes

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.23Sig. strikes landed per min3.79

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

56Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC lightweight average : 46%

3.05Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.65

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

49Sig. strike defense47

UFC lightweight average : 53%

2.29Takedown average0.82

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

23Takedown accuracy0

UFC lightweight average : 28%

55Takedown defense69

UFC lightweight average : 59%

2.59Submission average1.30

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

10Wins by knockout12

22Wins by submission12

5Wins by decision4

5Losses by knockout2

4Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision6

Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes is a scheduled BMF TITLE Lightweight fight on UFC 335 : OLIVEIRA VS LOPES. Charles Oliveira enters with a 37-11-0 record and Diego Lopes enters with a 28-8-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.